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Tropical 94L - PTC to be issued later today
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Lets come back and look at this when we hit 8pm tomorrow night and make sure 94L-da is actually roundabout this spot
and the slightly slower Euro AI
and the slightly slower Euro AI
Need to dissect which steering influence wins out based on intensity. Does a stronger storm interact more with the other cane, or the ULL
You are thinking like me as far as the effects from what will probably become Imelda. I believe intensity wise it will not approach major hurricane status or possibly even hurricane status. The rainfall totals that I saw yesterday on the Euro showed a maximum of 15 inches + within 30 miles of where I live. That would cause major problems. This morning the Euro has halved the rainfall totals for my area which would still be heavy but would eliminate the possibility of major flooding for rivers, creeks and streams where I live.
12z tracks look a bit south
as nice as that would be to be the case, back of the napkin logic (average hodo to take steering currents) says it will slow down. storm motion is NW but wind is lightly flowing SE at 200-300 mb. storm will feel more of that as it deepens
Humberto is cooking. Wonder what this means for 94L
Stormsfury
Member
Humberto is winding up rapidly, likely a lot stronger, maybe Cat 2 already but he's also moving at a snail's pace as well and compact. Without 94L having a well defined circ. and not knowing where it wants to close off doesn't help with confidence.
Brent
Member
I'm gonna say it won't help the uncertainty
But I'm having a really hard time believing if it grows into a cat 4+ there won't be a major influence
ya nhc estimate is 10-15mb below the initialization for all the hurricane models. makes me think we'll need to take 12z models with a grain of salt if their initialization is all around 994ish. we've had this discussion a lot, does initialization matter yada yada yada... i think it does if stronger means slower for humberto and the thin margins we are dealing with with ULL interaction vs fujiwara carousal
I'm not on facebook really, but i'm seeing some tweets that if they migrate to FB, will get some panic drummed up in WNC.
way too early to know if its warranted but this is evil timing with Helene 1yr anniversary tomorrow
on the meteorology side, we all know the possibility for inland flooding is present with the crawl/about face modeling has, but too early to highlight specific inland areas IMO. I would venture to say most of NC and SC are still in play for that
way too early to know if its warranted but this is evil timing with Helene 1yr anniversary tomorrow
on the meteorology side, we all know the possibility for inland flooding is present with the crawl/about face modeling has, but too early to highlight specific inland areas IMO. I would venture to say most of NC and SC are still in play for that
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Can you share some of the dooms day tweets?
Comparing the runs over the past few days of QPF (5-7 day). Painting now 5-7 across NC/SC. Obviously with models in more agreement to a landfall QPF has ramped up. 
This is the first one that i saw. nothing crazy hype but scary enough for a scarred community. I just wish we'd hold off a little bit on deciding who inland is getting big rain when we don't know with certainty it'll even make landfall (although that window for not seems to be closing)
if i were to guess, 12z icon is about to fuji with a much stronger humberto (931mb vs 944) this run
edit. not really a fuji i guess, but ots
edit. not really a fuji i guess, but ots
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12z rgem looks like if it went further, it'd make landfall, but still have a few more cycles to get into range
12z nam was gonna end up ots
12z nam was gonna end up ots
EPS Mean increasing...likely seeing more interaction with the trough to the west.
12z GFS is rolling, and is a smidgeon more consolidated (but still in the same spot) at my arbitrarily 
chosen 00z tomorrow timeslot
chosen 00z tomorrow timeslot
100% this is already a major.
Man maybe I need to chase to Bermuda
Tsappfrog20
Member
Gfs has Landfall in Charleston
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
GFS is near Charleston. 978mb. Slower than 6z
Brent
Member
I can't even believe Humberto right now
That water between Puerto Rico and Bermuda has been on fire this year
That water between Puerto Rico and Bermuda has been on fire this year
Moving a lot slower inland than the last several GFS runs as expected. Looks to be stalling, joining euro in that solution
looks like it's gonna wanna spin and rot inland turning into an absolute rainfall mess for some
Sullivan’s Island/IOP landfall on the GFS. Hugo esque location 
I really feel like this is gonna be the story for this one, assuming landfall occurs. There's just nothing to whisk it away
Yeah just kind of rots over SC. These look underdone with that stalling tbh
Yeah, likely underdone, though probably about 2" too high at @SD 's house.
rainfall forecast probably underdone with regards to the duration and the dynamics at play
Stormsfury
Member
Very close. Should be by 5pm. 100%
storm will be smaller and getting dry air wrapped into it, my lean is that a landfall would be bad flooding-wise but i don't think we have the horses to make this upper-echelon/biblical
Stormsfury
Member
Geez, that looks like Oct 2015 numbers...
Still raining next Friday am lol
Stormsfury
Member
These winds would still be a problem, especially prolonged over wet ground. North Charleston's peak gust during Hugo was recorded at 98mph.
humberto is going beast mode lol might be a 4 before the sun sets
what about the interaction with a modest ull? i'm not well versed in dynamics
the majority of the 12z gefs are inland with the system
