Level 3 threat for tomorrow.
model forecasts suggests the greatest instability will develop from
central North Carolina into southern and central Virginia, where
MLCAPE values appear likely to reach the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. In
addition to moderate instability, NAM forecast soundings near
Richmond, Virginia and Raleigh, North Carolina have steep mid-level
lapse rates with relatively cool temperatures aloft. This, combined
with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range will likely support
supercell development. The potential for supercells will be greatest
early in the afternoon, before storms merge into a line. Hailstones
of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with
supercells that develop in areas that destabilize the most. The
current thinking is that a relatively quick transition to a line
will occur. This line is forecast to become organized, moving
eastward across the Piedmont into the Raleigh/Durham and Richmond
areas during the late afternoon. Wind-damage will be likely along
the leading edge of the stronger parts of this line segment.
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