Shaggy
Member
Lots of big potential for the Vjrginia and NC crowd as a MCS fires up and moves east. SPC calls for supercells early with 2+ inch hail threats for any supercells that get going. Gonna be a long afternoon for the local NWS offices
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Severe 6/24-6/25/23 severe weather
- Thread starter Shaggy
- Start date
JHS
Member
Possible severe today too for the western Carolinas into north GA with an MCS coming out of Tenn. Tomorrow looks rough especially east of I-77 in NC and VA. I would not be shocked to see a moderate risk for a small part of both states.
Shaggy
Member
Brick Tamland
Member
Level 3 threat for tomorrow.
model forecasts suggests the greatest instability will develop from
central North Carolina into southern and central Virginia, where
MLCAPE values appear likely to reach the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. In
addition to moderate instability, NAM forecast soundings near
Richmond, Virginia and Raleigh, North Carolina have steep mid-level
lapse rates with relatively cool temperatures aloft. This, combined
with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range will likely support
supercell development. The potential for supercells will be greatest
early in the afternoon, before storms merge into a line. Hailstones
of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with
supercells that develop in areas that destabilize the most. The
current thinking is that a relatively quick transition to a line
will occur. This line is forecast to become organized, moving
eastward across the Piedmont into the Raleigh/Durham and Richmond
areas during the late afternoon. Wind-damage will be likely along
the leading edge of the stronger parts of this line segment.
model forecasts suggests the greatest instability will develop from
central North Carolina into southern and central Virginia, where
MLCAPE values appear likely to reach the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. In
addition to moderate instability, NAM forecast soundings near
Richmond, Virginia and Raleigh, North Carolina have steep mid-level
lapse rates with relatively cool temperatures aloft. This, combined
with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range will likely support
supercell development. The potential for supercells will be greatest
early in the afternoon, before storms merge into a line. Hailstones
of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with
supercells that develop in areas that destabilize the most. The
current thinking is that a relatively quick transition to a line
will occur. This line is forecast to become organized, moving
eastward across the Piedmont into the Raleigh/Durham and Richmond
areas during the late afternoon. Wind-damage will be likely along
the leading edge of the stronger parts of this line segment.
Shaggy
Member
Wouldn't be surprised to see the enhanced area expand west into the western piedmont. New disco will be out shortly
New day 1 just issued
For tomorrow- new outlook
Brick Tamland
Member
Wow, really increased the level 3 coverage.
Last edited:
Last night I was in Waterloo for this beast! 
It'll be interesting to see how quickly tomorrow goes linear. Any discreet cells early in the life cycle of the event will have a higher likelihood of dropping golf ball or potentially larger hail. As the line congeals wind will be the primary threat with a well defined ofb ahead of the main line of storms. Additionally there is a lower threat of flash flooding as storms may attempt to redevelop and train behind the initial line tomorrow evening
Tor-warned cell SW of Kirklin is developing a hook. 
New tornado warning for Bloomington, Indiana. 
Cell near Freedom has some broad rotation. 