NCSNOW
Member
Lot of left over debris gonna be around till noon atleast over this way. You gotta get the steamer cooking (sun) to get sevvere wx latter today.
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Severe 6/24-6/25/23 severe weather
- Thread starter Shaggy
- Start date
Full sunshine here this morning. Not a good thing. Looks like there will be plenty of sun needed to provide the spark for storms.
Shaggy
Member
Nws offices still running ahead of modeled timing. They are saying late afternoon early evening while the models are all around midnight for my area
BHS1975
Member
The calm before the storm. I wonder if we'll get any watches this afternoon.
NCSNOW
Member
82/64 at high noon. full sun. Not sure what convective temp is today
NCSNOW
Member
Cary_Snow95
Member
Full sun and 85.8 in Cary. Steadily climbing
HrrrrrRRR setting the table for a major bust this afternoon. Been honking that for a few runs now. Only showing a couple of storm clusters and scattered sprinkles.
NAM, FV3, Woofs all looking pretty good though. And we know the HrrRRrr usually sucks. We'll see, I guess. Still expecting a few clusters and line segments to provide the primary wind threat.
Steven_1974
Member
Yeah, I was looking and noticed that. If I'm reading it right, around the Triangle between 8-9? Would be fine with me to skip severe weather.
Hrrr mixes rdu to 58 if that happens its game over but how many times have we seen the hrrr over mix the BL only to have to correct in the warm months? None of the other cams mix as much
Looks like the SPC is still impressed with the severe chance.
Willing to bet it’s out to lunch. Don’t really see much inhibiting development right now.. absolutely full sunshine everywhere during peak heating hours. CIN has all but worn away. CAPE pushing 2000 already. Lapse rates around 7. DCAPE at 1300 (really high for damaging straight line wind support) .. can’t really find the kryptonite to the atmosphere that would inhibit storms from firing today.
Better forcing is just now getting to the mountains, better divergence gets here locally around 23z. Going to be interesting to see if we get rapid development in the apps over the next 1-3 hours should be a good precursor to what we see farther east
Yeah it's looking like it's out to lunch for the time being.
Yeah even the new run started to adjust to better ml cape values, higher 2m dews, and more storm coverage
Looks like it's about to be go time along the apps/in the lee
Shaggy
Member
Cary_Snow95
Member
3k NAM has a beast of a line moving thru at 8
Watch is out.
Cary_Snow95
Member
NCSNOW
Member
Got one blowing up , mushrooming over me. Should show up next 30 on radar
WFFaithful
Member
Wow. I was just about to ask if anyone had reports from the on mping report I noticed.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Should really start to see this line blossom in the next hour
Parrothead
Member
Reports of 2.5 inch hail in downtown Lexington
Cary_Snow95
Member
Lots of cells starting to bubble near Troy
Storms must be on the way. My beagle is shaking like a leaf.
This was the last HRRR run
View attachment 062623.mp4
View attachment 062623.mp4
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We were pulling out of the Sheetz in Kernersville about 6:15ish tonight and noticed it started hailing with no rain.
That’s stuff you hear about in the southern plains. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen hail to begin a storm.
That’s stuff you hear about in the southern plains. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen hail to begin a storm.
Its a warning party 
MichaelJ
Member
My front yard right now