• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

5/18/20 - 5/23/20 Upper Low Flooding & Severe Threat

KyloG said:
EPS has increased GSP from 0.5" to almost 6" over the past couple of days... :oops:

I don't envy this upcoming week in the 85/77 corridor. Hopefully RDU can stay in the 1-2" range.

View attachment 41578


And GSP has been crushing the rain totals the past couple of months....will RainCold/SD/myself have been sucking wind as usual.

View attachment 41579
Click to expand...
Eastern Piedmont is trending drier as the west shifts continue.
 
Rain Cold said:
Eastern Piedmont is trending drier as the west shifts continue.
Click to expand...

Yeah...6z Euro shifted west again. By Wed AM the 6z Euro still has Wake Co below 1" qpf. Yesterday we were in the 2-3" range. If I was a betting man the over/under for Wake Co. would be 0.5" qpf for the week...by the time the west shift stops.

In fact, Wednesday doesn't look too bad around here, we can work on our sun tans. Below is Wednesday daylight rainfall.

ecmwf-deterministic-se-precip_12hr_inch-0019200.png

6z Euro...95 corridor is under 0.5" rain. Wouldn't take much of a shift now to get RDU into that.

ecmwf-deterministic-se-total_precip_inch-0019200.png
 
KyloG said:
Yeah...6z Euro shifted west again. By Wed AM the 6z Euro still has Wake Co below 1" qpf. Yesterday we were in the 2-3" range. If I was a betting man the over/under for Wake Co. would be 0.5" qpf for the week...by the time the west shift stops.

In fact, Wednesday doesn't look too bad around here, we can work on our sun tans. Below is Wednesday daylight rainfall.

View attachment 41585

6z Euro...95 corridor is under 0.5" rain. Wouldn't take much of a shift now to get RDU into that.

View attachment 41586
Click to expand...
Looks like a winter snow situation.
 
Rain Cold said:
Looks like a winter snow situation.
Click to expand...

Will probably end up with 0.12” total QPF Raleigh ITB from passing showers on Friday as the ULL opens up and out. Dry spot already coming into focus. Now all we need is for the model to shift it from Rocky Mount to its final inevitable resting place smack dab over Raleigh and we’ll be true to form.
 
I think the rain is good. Because June-September will likely be a drought hot and dry


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
Aside from a landfalling hurricane, this week is one of the most impressive setups you'll ever see for flooding in western NC.
Click to expand...
Not quiet. Vegetation can handle quiet a bit this time of year plus this setup is spread out instead of all at once. One of the more rare setups is snowmelt and heavy rain outside of the mountains with no vegetation. Have only seen it once and was some of the worst flooding ever outside of normal areas.
 
This area is likely going to get dry slotted a bit late Tuesday through most of the day Wednesday so depending on the where the wedge boundary is we may end up with just clouds and drizzle for a time. Pwats increase again late Wednesday through Friday and we start to get more and more of a warm sector type atmosphere. May only end up with an area wide 1-2 inches but the potential for some south to north banding Thursday and Friday pushes local areas up into the 3-5 inch range.
 
SD said:
This area is likely going to get dry slotted a bit late Tuesday through most of the day Wednesday so depending on the where the wedge boundary is we may end up with just clouds and drizzle for a time. Pwats increase again late Wednesday through Friday and we start to get more and more of a warm sector type atmosphere. May only end up with an area wide 1-2 inches but the potential for some south to north banding Thursday and Friday pushes local areas up into the 3-5 inch range.
Click to expand...

Somehow the GFS gets 3” in a circle around us. I will happily take 1.5” of rain though.

22D88FA7-BBB8-4CE9-A20B-CB68293CAA61.png
 
Models always suck during upslope events. Likely be sharp cutoff with only 1-3” from North Wilkesboro to Shelby NC. But higher terrain could see 3-6” esp Boone NC.
 
Global models aren't equipped to fully resolve warm advection, isentropic upglide, and orographic lift that will all be very big contributors to precipitation this week, especially in the western piedmont of NC & extreme upstate SC not to mention the convective, sporadic nature of much of this precip. Red flags everywhere on this setup suggest major over performance
 
Webberweather53 said:
Global models aren't equipped to fully resolve warm advection, isentropic upglide, and orographic lift that will all be very big contributors to precipitation this week, especially in the western piedmont of NC & extreme upstate SC not to mention the convective, sporadic nature of much of this precip. Red flags everywhere on this setup suggest major over performance
Click to expand...

That euro death band would definitely do the trick for flash flooding, that set up on Tuesday
Morning looks real interesting for big amounts of rain already 6689D145-700C-44EE-A9ED-8D66185D48BA.png1F027C86-D940-4C6A-A78A-D4DED1DFC786.png
 
Sorta surprised there are currently any flood watches up. I am sure it's coming, maybe during the 3 o'clock hour?
 
Friday imo looks good for severe wx as the ULL weakens and thermodynamics is able to rush in a bit with building heights, while wind energy still lingers, euro likes this day as it’s been showing this for multiple runs now 794695B3-020D-4E75-BB8C-B7CFD4997F60.png5714CFBD-D0F7-4C68-B898-EAFE82DCE1BE.png5F857359-C5F1-45A5-8318-18C8151D737E.pngED279EDD-6425-4582-BF38-F01B938E9B94.png92F6AB73-1A0D-4049-B85C-84FD286B311C.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Literally every 6-hourly interval on today's 12z ECMWF has measurable precip in Charlotte beginning late tomorrow & lasting into early Saturday.

Time to invest my $1200 stimulus check in a boat.

⛵⛵⛵⛵⛵⛵⛵
Click to expand...
Wow, what is the final total? Columbia SC now looks to be increasing in amount.
 
I know this isn’t really this week, but this looks so similar... lol, the similar look before we saw this upper level low come into play, pattern repetition lol 99DF27A5-5A7B-4D8B-B9BA-C3E0FD8AD6D9.pngB14B8BEE-9F11-4BE5-8B84-733417967917.png
 
Euro Hi-Res looks fun for this coming week.
1fdce46c8a79c8e523b99bebb9450f5c.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
For upslope chasing, Boone, NC performs 9/10 times if you want flooding. Particularly the mall area. I can see that area getting 6”+.
 
Never wish for severe weather it’s dangerous and damaging to people’s property. But I look forward to tracking it when it happens. Very unfortunate when severe weather happens though


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top