HRRR and 3KM NAM very interesting look around here for tomorrow afternoon and evening. Cape over 2500 and lapse rates 7-8. Reflectivity and helicity and vil maps showing interesting times possible. I think it could warrant a slight around here.
Yea prolly gonna be a few golf ball hailers tomorrowI want whatever the SPC is smoking!
Maybe a baseball Sized report tomorrow? Environment is there
Overall, guidance is not excited about convection acrossIdk, Brad P isn't biting either. Does anyone know what's going on? ?
Imo any storm that’s gets going = likely becomes severe, soundings across the area are high end for hailOverall, guidance is not excited about convection across
the FA tomorrow aftn. And sure enough, the new Day 2 convective
outlook has removed our area from the marginal risk. Still, with a
moist SLY/SWLY low-level flow and sbCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, we
should see some showers and tstms develop. it just looks like there
will be a lack of upper support and focusing mechanism, as the
expected wedge-like boundary may not materialize.
GSP is not excited either.
Oh my. Talk about a powder keg over the eastern half of DFW at 21z with virtually no cap.
Even got a couple analogs for baseball-sized hail showing up.
View attachment 81584
Hrrr is about to nail a supercell entering the upstate of SC, what a incredible update they made to it
Eh slight seems more likely not enough low level shear for a tornado threatI think it’s safe to say if the 00z HRRR verifies (been a damn good model so far with storms) an upgrade to slight is likely for tomorrow .. maybe enhanced if other models get onboard
Yep biggest threat tomorrow would likely be hail or wet microbursts. The 3k had a little bit of organization and could concentrate a wind threat but as a whole mehEh slight seems more likely not enough low level shear for a tornado threat
If we don't end up with a lot of debris Saturday or get moist advection cut off by the MCS to our south there's some sneaky potential to get a couple of longer duration cells/supercellsLots of turning on the 3km/hrrr on sat with decent low level shear, hmm