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4/7-4/10 possible severe WX

HRRR and 3KM NAM very interesting look around here for tomorrow afternoon and evening. Cape over 2500 and lapse rates 7-8. Reflectivity and helicity and vil maps showing interesting times possible. I think it could warrant a slight around here.
 
Idk, Brad P isn't biting either. Does anyone know what's going on? ?‍♂️
Overall, guidance is not excited about convection across
the FA tomorrow aftn. And sure enough, the new Day 2 convective
outlook has removed our area from the marginal risk. Still, with a
moist SLY/SWLY low-level flow and sbCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, we
should see some showers and tstms develop. it just looks like there
will be a lack of upper support and focusing mechanism, as the
expected wedge-like boundary may not materialize.

GSP is not excited either.
 
Overall, guidance is not excited about convection across
the FA tomorrow aftn. And sure enough, the new Day 2 convective
outlook has removed our area from the marginal risk. Still, with a
moist SLY/SWLY low-level flow and sbCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, we
should see some showers and tstms develop. it just looks like there
will be a lack of upper support and focusing mechanism, as the
expected wedge-like boundary may not materialize.

GSP is not excited either.
Imo any storm that’s gets going = likely becomes severe, soundings across the area are high end for hail
 
Oh my. Talk about a powder keg over the eastern half of DFW at 21z with virtually no cap.

Even got a couple analogs for baseball-sized hail showing up.

1617931879594.png
 
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