.SHORT TERM...Why I'm saying is there supposed to be bad storms is cause simulated radar doesn't show anything this afternoon and tonight. But parameters are decent. I'm guessing theres a missing piece somewhere
Overall, guidance is not excited about convection acrossIdk, Brad P isn't biting either. Does anyone know what's going on?
Imo any storm that’s gets going = likely becomes severe, soundings across the area are high end for hailOverall, guidance is not excited about convection across
the FA tomorrow aftn. And sure enough, the new Day 2 convective
outlook has removed our area from the marginal risk. Still, with a
moist SLY/SWLY low-level flow and sbCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, we
should see some showers and tstms develop. it just looks like there
will be a lack of upper support and focusing mechanism, as the
expected wedge-like boundary may not materialize.
GSP is not excited either.
Eh slight seems more likely not enough low level shear for a tornado threatI think it’s safe to say if the 00z HRRR verifies (been a damn good model so far with storms) an upgrade to slight is likely for tomorrow .. maybe enhanced if other models get onboard