Morehead city evening write up
Latest 00Z
hi res CAM runs hold onto a line of
convection firing
overnight, beginning shortly after 06Z.
MLCAPE values across a
variety of
hi res models maintain a range of 1500-2500
J/kg with
ample with mid- level lapse rates up to 7
C/km. With low
LCL
heights, up to 40
kt of 0-1km
shear, 60+
kt of 0-6 km
shear, and
consistently curved hodographs, tornadoes continue to be a
concern overnight. The 00Z HRRR shows SC values above 10 and STP
values nearing 5 for much of the southern
CWA. It is notable
the 00Z HRRR also showed a decent line of discrete cells
covering our southern coast and infiltrating as far inland as
the coastal plains, essentially covering the entire
CWA. While
the greatest severe potential remains along the southern coast,
it is worth emphasizing the entire
CWA has a conditionally
sufficient
atmosphere conducive for severe weather.
To reemphasize, this threat is highly conditional on a
sufficient lifting mechanism being present and drier air aloft
not depriving the environment of necessary
moisture. If storms
do fire, the highest threat window is between 06-12z overnight.