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4/19/20-4/20/20 Severe Weather

Zander98al said:
A little suprised but considerding things become more favorable this afternoon its understandable. Likely be a pds watch later in the afternoon. Doesnt take a pds watch though for violent long track tornadoes though.
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Should always remember that while these folks are the best in the business, they're assigning imaginary numbers and colors to a map. Weather is gonna do what it wants to do, whether that be a bust or an outbreak
 
According to BMX, the boundary between Greenville and Montgomery that was left from the morning MCS is supposed to dissipate after noon allowing the warm front to move north. The lastest satellite imagery seems to show that process has begun.

The wall of how far north it will be able to go is also very evident on visible satellite as well as radar. My question is, has the insolation over parts of northern and central AL/MS created a weakness that will tug the precip train a little further north allowing the warm front to progress slightly further north? Nothing drastic it seems but with such a sharp gradient and the potential for the boundary to be focus of the worst of the day's storms that few miles could be critical in terms of the population that will be affected by today's storms.

I know it isn't much but the current radar loop seems show the band of precip being about 20-25 miles further north than was predicted on the HRRR a couple of hours ago and it seems each successive batch of rain crossing the MS/AL line is a tad further north than the previous batch.
 
Sleet City USA said:
Should always remember that while these folks are the best in the business, they're assigning imaginary numbers and colors to a map. Weather is gonna do what it wants to do, whether that be a bust or an outbreak
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Exactly ?.
 
Worried about this area within the next few hours. Its getting breaks in the clouds and is a powder keg at the moment with all the instability 20200419_120111.jpgScreenshot_20200419-115954_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Zander98al said:
A little suprised but considerding things become more favorable this afternoon its understandable. Likely be a pds watch later in the afternoon. Doesnt take a pds watch though for violent long track tornadoes though.
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Yeah, not that surprising. The better low level helicity will be across far East MS, all of south AL on into GA.
 
Parker said:
BMX latest graphic is much further south then the SPC forecast
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That's very interesting to me. Wasn't there a tweet that said BMX talked SPC out of a high risk? If that's true, its just odd to me that they are going off on their own.
 
Zander98al said:
Which area do consider the most prime for a significant storm this afternoon?
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In this setups like this, a ~hundred miles off the Gulf. Right now I'm thinking right around the Montgomery area. That seems to be close to where the warm front will be and the intersection of the wedge front.
 
Sleet City USA said:
That's very interesting to me. Wasn't there a tweet that said BMX talked SPC out of a high risk? If that's true, its just odd to me that they are going off on their own.
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It always bothers me when you have the SPC saying one thing and then the NWS saying another. Jason Simpson made a post just a minute ago and I will have to share it but he was more in line with the SPC as well. BMX pretty much says no threat at all bham north but that’s not what the SPC is going with.

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