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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

Both ARW and NSSL WRF are now QLCS show big time. Very little discrete convection across most of the area. What tries to get going has lots of trouble. That said, the QLCS and it's embedded supercells are very nasty for central MS into northern AL. I hate QLCS tornados....
 
Luckily looking at maps there is not a lot out there as far as towns and people go.....looked intense on radar though.....solid strong QLCS type event.

If it hit any town it was Frierson.....and its small so lets hope it missed
 
Arcc said:
Both ARW and NSSL WRF are now QLCS show big time. Very little discrete convection across most of the area. What tries to get going has lots of trouble. That said, the QLCS and it's embedded supercells are very nasty for central MS into northern AL. I hate QLCS tornados....
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Was the tornadoes last year in SE Alabama mostly assoicated with a QLCS?
 
40s and rain in the NC mtns. Wedge building for now but winds will rip it apart later. Maybe this area can help disrupt the line before it reaches eastern NC. Timing and cold wedge are hard to predict.
 
Going to be two QLCS tornados on that storm in LA......again luckily these areas are very rural and there are few organized towns out there....
 
eyewall said:
The key for the Carolinas tomorrow:


The main question with this outlook is convective mode. There are
two possibilities. The first is that the band of thunderstorms will
have discrete elements and gaps that will be favorable for
supercells and tornadoes. Forecast soundings at 15Z from southern
Virginia southward into northern South Carolina show looped
hodographs with 0-3 km storm relative helicities in the extreme
catogory, generally near or above 600 m2/s2. This would support a
threat for strong tornadoes associated with the more dominant
supercells. A wind damage and hail threat would be likely with
supercells and with the more organized line segments.

The second scenario would be that a squall-line is ongoing at 12Z
from eastern Georgia northward into the western Carolinas and
Virginia. In that case, widespread wind damage would be likely. A
QLCS tornado threat would exist with the stronger bowing line
segments. Hail would also be possible with the more intense parts of
the line.

The questions is which one will it be?
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Neither one sounds good. Do we have to choose?
 
That was some impressive lee side enhancement east of Asheville just in the last hour
 
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