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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

Wo
Arcc said:
HRRR slowly falling in line with the ARW. Big conglomerate MCS/embedded supercell mess over North MS/AL with a isolated supercell out front. Everything SE of Franklin county, AL having trouble building.

Will be interesting to see if that trend continues.
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im guessing that would make things worse for alabama later?
 
Also, if I recall correctly, FFC mentioned this is the first moderate risk for their forecast area since 4/5/17.
 
Rain Cold said:
Glad I don't live close to you!
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Yeah I've been on the thought process of forcing catches up and things mature to our west so we get line segments/border to border band with embedded spin ups. A couple more runs like that and have to start thinking we see more cellular activity
 
The thunder with the convection moving in now is actually pretty loud.

Must be some fairly steep lapse rates above the capping inversion.
 
SD said:
All thoughts aside you don't see a lot of modeled soundings that look like that in this area, freaked me out
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Yeah I peak at about 750 on SRH and it looks like the hrrr gets it here by 11am which would help keep the threat down a little as opposed to if it came through at 3pm.

If the next 2 days play out as modeled it's going to be bad.

I think we see an upgrade to moderate for sure for NC......with soundings like you have it would be warranted.
 
SD said:
Yeah I've been on the thought process of forcing catches up and things mature to our west so we get line segments/border to border band with embedded spin ups. A couple more runs like that and have to start thinking we see more cellular activity
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HRRR seems to develop a few storms out front and races them up along 95. Any semi discrete cells tomorrow could spell serious problems tornado wise.
 
I thought you’d see the enhanced go to at least Gsp. But the national weather service is thinking like I am. It will be a weakening line so leave it at slight risk


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Flash Flood Watch issued for Watauga & Wilkes. Up to 4” poss.
 
Shaggy said:
HRRR seems to develop a few storms out front and races them up along 95. Any semi discrete cells tomorrow could spell serious problems tornado wise.
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Yeah I saw that one cell riding up 95 on the 12z run. Like you said I wouldn't be surprised at all to see from CAE to to your area east toward the beaches upgraded.
 
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