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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

Myfrotho704_ said:
Classic pseudo warm front across the SE with elevated convection right on the north, any
Snowflowxxl said:
ARW has a death tube going through AL
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Its looking more likely that south central alabama will be the area to watch as rain and elavted storms go across northern alabama leaving south central and south alabama relatively untouched. Thatd be a worst case scenario^ but that area looks to have the most potential to me
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I know the focus has been on tornados, but I’m curious what the wind threat looks like as well...?
The models have some high values, and I know the whole “cut it in half” trick, but any educated thoughts on what we may be looking at? And if someone who answers wants to science me up on the why behind the numbers, is also be interested.....
 
ive been out of the loop for a few hours are the models coming down a little compared to earlier today around noon?
 
NAM still looks nasty with embedded supercells in the QLCS, UH ain’t impressive and it’s been like that across the whole southeast, but these are obviously rotating storms, it wouldn’t make sense that the rotation is under 2km either, something’s up with the NAM, it’s struggled with UH 8FD04FC5-5EE7-4B35-A2E0-A4B87880294D.png
 
DustinWx said:
Also stop asking about metro Atlanta. Look in the thread for your answers or maybe look at a model yourself? We all want to know what will happen


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? at someone from Metro Atlanta disliking your post.
 
4hr period for BHM, from 2200-0200 UTC (5-9pm central) all have PDS TOR best guess hazard, based on 3km NAM soundings.

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BufordWX said:
FFC now mentioning the possibility of isolated supercells in the WAA band In the afternoon over north GA.View attachment 39062
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^^^Much more leveled discussion compared to the "historic" talk by the earlier forecaster.

And yes, I mentioned the potential for storms along the warm front earlier. The only thing preventing it (potentially) is weak capping.
 
Can someone with a lot more knowledge than me break down the difference between the separate rounds and why the later round is likely to be the more severe one?


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FWIW, the HRRR gets the Southern ATL Metro into the Upper 70s late Sunday Afternoon, which are borderline convective temps.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
NAM still looks nasty with embedded supercells in the QLCS, UH ain’t impressive and it’s been like that across the whole southeast, but these are obviously rotating storms, it wouldn’t make sense that the rotation is under 2km either, something’s up with the NAM, it’s struggled with UH View attachment 39067
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Damn the NAM. Somethings up, maybe it's a blessing or a blimp. See, this is a good example, of what might be the lack of commercial airline sampling. We're in nowcasting mode now. Curious to see the next model suits. But I don't know if I can manage to stay awake. LOL.
 
SouthATLwx said:
^^^Much more leveled discussion compared to the "historic" talk by the earlier forecaster.

And yes, I mentioned the potential for storms along the warm front earlier. The only thing preventing it (potentially) is weak capping.
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There is no way the FFC office put the “historic” language out based on one forecaster’s opinion.
 
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