NEWEST BMX GRAPHIC
.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 450 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021/
Today through Friday.
So far this AM we have had widespread showers with embedded
thunderstorms as it spread NE across
C AL. The activity has been
elevated and while we are watching for any rogue storms, severe
activity during the early morning hours should be marginal at
best until the warm
front makes its way northward later today. We
have increased the severe threat in the NW half of
C AL for this
afternoon and evening. This probably doesn`t come as much of a
surprise as this system is ramping up to be significant there with
strong tornadoes a possibility. The SE half of
C AL is a
different story. While we have a marginal threat this AM for
portions of
C AL, for the rest of the afternoon and evening,
parameters are much lower in the SE counties with
convection not
as
likely there until later this evening. After the current
convection currently on the
radar pushes N, we should have a
somewhat lull in activity in the SE.
In contrast, by around 11am, our warm
front should be to the N of
the area. Models suggest some cellular activity will
likely pop
up in the NW first. MUCAPE will not be lacking, but will be
highest in the west for this afternoon. 0-6km bulk
shear will be
in ample supply across
C AL. However, 0-1km
shear will be
decidedly higher in the NW. Although amounts vary, guidance is in
agreement decreasing this low level
shear significantly after 6z
as the bulk of the
instability skirts to the NE. This will be not
only with the
front moving across, but our negatively tilted upper
shortwave that is expected to be over the Arklatex ~18z today
expected to race off toward IL/IN by midnight tonight. With the
bulk of the activity in the SE counties expected for later this
evening, this greatly decreases the chance for severe weather for
them S of the I85 corridor. This is the reason for the sharp risk
gradient in our severe graphics. Timing is pretty similar to what
we had yesterday except possibly starting in the NW at 11am
instead of noon. The
front is expected to make progress after
midnight with the risk for
TS in the SE counties much lower for
the day on Friday with lower
dew points moving in behind the
front.