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Severe 3/21-3/24 Severe Weather

A band of moderate to heavy rain with likely embedded thunderstorms is to our SW and is moving NE toward this area, probably arriving within the next 1/2 hour. I’ll be bringing home my brother from the hospital (he has just been discharged), but will wait for this mess to go through first as I made the nurse aware of the bad wx coming and there’s flexibility on the timing.
 
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This cell near Knoxville rotating some


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Tennessee and Kentucky just saw a explosion of severe thunderstorm warnings. Few of them has broad rotation


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CLTwx said:
Something I'm trying to understand is the relationship between cape and DP values. Is there a direct correlation? My weather station has gone from 50DP at 11pm to 66DP at 2:25pm
Click to expand...
Dew points is a part of it, mid level lapse rates are another big part, but typically higher dews is more likely to have higher instability, unless mid levels are a issue
 
HRRR really trying to do some refiring along the cold front in the overnight bourse from about Raleigh eastward .. could be interesting but obviously limiting factor being time of day
 
Hmmmm new HRRR fires cells up in the wake of morning rain but it seems to be too happy with initial conditions and how much rain there actually is around the area… DAABEADC-CADB-460B-87EE-C41B22DA6AE8.jpegFC149064-AEC7-4DFB-93C9-7AB6B5F3C330.jpeg
 
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Mesoscale Discussion 0326
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022

Areas affected...Parts of the South Carolina into North Carolina
Piedmont

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 232012Z - 232245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorm development, including one
or two supercells posing a risk for tornadoes, appears possible by
6-8 PM EDT. While it is not certain that a severe weather watch
will be needed, trends are being monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Low-level warm air and moisture advection, and
insolation with increasing breaks in cloud cover, are contributing
to gradual boundary-layer destabilization along a remnant surface
frontal zone across the Piedmont. With further insolation, and weak
cooling in the 700-500 layer forecast through late afternoon, models
suggest that mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg may
develop. It appears that this will coincide with the
east-northeastward propagation of a 45-50 kt speed maximum around
850 mb.

Mid/upper forcing for ascent appears likely to remain generally
weak, but models have been suggestive that scattered discrete
thunderstorm development is increasingly possible through 22-00Z.
With deep-layer shear already strong, beneath 50-70 kt southwesterly
flow around 500 mb, enlarging, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs
may become favorable for the evolution of at least one or two
supercells that may pose a risk of producing tornadoes.
 
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