DadOfJax
Member
Best storm by far. We’ve been very lucky so far today.
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Severe 3/21-3/24 Severe Weather
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Best storm by far. We’ve been very lucky so far today.
HSVweather
Member
Keeping an eye on this little notch/bow down in Winston county headed my way, about 40 miles away
cyclogent
Member
conditional risk / 40% watch probability into southern Tennessee.
Mesoscale Discussion 0313
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022
Areas affected...portions of Southern-Middle Tennessee...extreme
northeast Alabama...extreme northwest Georgia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 222155Z - 222330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A conditional severe threat may develop with the
approaching squall line across southern-Middle Tennessee if adequate
moisture can arrive on time. A couple of damaging gusts would be the
main threat, though a tornado cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance is
possible.
DISCUSSION...A mature QLCS with a history of damaging gusts and
tornadoes is approaching portions of southern-Middle Tennessee.
Ahead of the QLCS, temperatures are in the mid-70s F surface
dewpoints, with dewpoints approaching 57 F. At the moment, buoyancy
is scant ahead of the squall, and RAP forecast soundings suggest
that dewpoints need to reach or exceed 59 F before convection can
become sufficiently rooted in the surface-layer to ingest the
abundant low-level streamwise vorticity to otherwise support a more
appreciable severe threat. Latest surface observations have shown up
to 59 F surface dewpoints across Lauderdale County, AL. As such, it
is possible that enough surface-based buoyancy may advect ahead of
the line into far southern-Middle TN to support the potential for a
few damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado. Either way, conditions
will continue to be monitored increasing buoyancy into TN and the
need for a possible WW issuance.
Mesoscale Discussion 0313
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022
Areas affected...portions of Southern-Middle Tennessee...extreme
northeast Alabama...extreme northwest Georgia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 222155Z - 222330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A conditional severe threat may develop with the
approaching squall line across southern-Middle Tennessee if adequate
moisture can arrive on time. A couple of damaging gusts would be the
main threat, though a tornado cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance is
possible.
DISCUSSION...A mature QLCS with a history of damaging gusts and
tornadoes is approaching portions of southern-Middle Tennessee.
Ahead of the QLCS, temperatures are in the mid-70s F surface
dewpoints, with dewpoints approaching 57 F. At the moment, buoyancy
is scant ahead of the squall, and RAP forecast soundings suggest
that dewpoints need to reach or exceed 59 F before convection can
become sufficiently rooted in the surface-layer to ingest the
abundant low-level streamwise vorticity to otherwise support a more
appreciable severe threat. Latest surface observations have shown up
to 59 F surface dewpoints across Lauderdale County, AL. As such, it
is possible that enough surface-based buoyancy may advect ahead of
the line into far southern-Middle TN to support the potential for a
few damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado. Either way, conditions
will continue to be monitored increasing buoyancy into TN and the
need for a possible WW issuance.
HSVweather
Member
Lots of suspect areas but nothing tight or severe here
Z
Zander98al
Guest
HSVweather
Member
Surprised there’s not at least a Severe Thunderstorm warning on this. It’s trying for sure. Heading roughly towards the Tuscaloosa area 
HSVweather
Member
RollTide18
Member
Gonna need a tornado warning for Washington county in AL soon
Edit: as soon as I say that, it’s been issued
Edit: as soon as I say that, it’s been issued
Bama Ravens
Member
NWS Birmingham has been incredibly restrained on issuing tornado warnings for some of these suspicious spots today. Total 180 from how NWS Jackson handled them. Not saying either of them are wrong in how they’ve handled it, but it’s interesting to look at how different they can be.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Surprised at no tornado warning with the Tuscaloosa one. 
SASQUATCH
2-Time Defending SouthernWX Fantasy Football Champ
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
A lot of trees in that area…see no TDS on CC yet
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HSVweather
Member
Maybe a secondary area on Moundville?
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Looks like that secondary one wants to take over as the dominant rotation.
Atleast posistion wise
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Lol that Tuscaloosa cell is running off of about 250 sbcape ?. Yeah that ain't going to touchdown. May get some hail and gusty winds. But 250 sbcape ain't going to cut it ?
SASQUATCH
2-Time Defending SouthernWX Fantasy Football Champ
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Lol that Tuscaloosa cell is running off of about 250 sbcape. Yeah that ain't going to touchdown. May get some hail and gusty winds. But 250 sbcape ain't going to cut it
. Yeah that ain't going to touchdown. May get some hail and gusty winds. But 250 sbcape ain't going to cut it 
We’ve had some chatter about hail. Nothing confirmed. VIL is moderately impressive.
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HSVweather
Member
Bama Ravens
Member
New tornado watch that has 70/60 probs.
