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Severe 3/11-12 Severe Weather

Another concern is the models are all pumping out wind gust well into the 50's as the front approaches, typically these are overdone but still with the low track it would not take much to get those winds down, even moderate to heavy showers could do the trick.

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Should be windy Saturday and these winds just off the surface could easy reach the ground in storms. This is from Raleigh overnight disco.


While instability
will be limited due to the time of day and widespread precipitation,
a few storms with damaging winds and even isolated tornadoes still
can`t be ruled out given the very strong low/mid level wind fields
(including 50-70 kts just 0.5 km off the ground) and rich low-level
moisture. The most favorable location for this is in the eastern
Sandhills and Coastal Plain which will have the best opportunity for
some daytime heating before the cold front moves through, and where
models show SBCAPE as high as ~500 J/kg on Saturday morning.
 
Shaggy said:
Should be windy Saturday and these winds just off the surface could easy reach the ground in storms. This is from Raleigh overnight disco.


While instability
will be limited due to the time of day and widespread precipitation,
a few storms with damaging winds and even isolated tornadoes still
can`t be ruled out given the very strong low/mid level wind fields
(including 50-70 kts just 0.5 km off the ground) and rich low-level
moisture. The most favorable location for this is in the eastern
Sandhills and Coastal Plain which will have the best opportunity for
some daytime heating before the cold front moves through, and where
models show SBCAPE as high as ~500 J/kg on Saturday morning.
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Yeah, I kinda haven't been paying attention to this one but I am now, dang

 
This may be more banter than contributing, but is anyone following the setup late tomorrow across northern Florida and southern Georgia? The SPC has issued a 10% tornado risk and expanded the slight risk area further northwest into AL and GA.
 
yeesh 65 knt gust....thats pushing hurricane force gust, the only time I can ever recall pre frontal winds that actually pan out to that level was the March 93 storm that gave us gust to 80 mph even without thunderstorms....and April 2011 with gust to near 60 well before the tornadic cells got here. This is neither of those so I imagine peak gust to around 45-50 the safe bet with some isolated higher stuff with the squall line.

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The NAM has Wilson at 39 with PGV at 71 just before the front gets here....thats 32 degrees over 30 miles lol....
 
Good grief HRRR. 2nd triple point tornadic cell within a week? Color me wrong but the most impressive signature for this event is being shown in central Alabama lol.Screenshot_20220310-175012-751.png
 
Your more imposing setup looks like the I20 corridor with your boundary 999mb triple point. Speed shear divergence. Looks like you'll be below 1000sb cape but still 30 hours out.

Correction* rapidly dropping pressure from about 1008 mb to 999mb. Impressive pressure falls within the region of the boundary. Backing winds a decent bit.
 
00z hrrr looks like a bowing segment. Seen that a few times now.HRRRSE_con_uphlysw_033.png
 
Bring it....yeah its overdone but damn....might see some 60-70 mph gust if that squall line bows out anywhere.....

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SD said:
View attachment 115331

I'm pretty concerned about severe weather around here in the morning, maybe more than I should be..
Click to expand...
Pretty energetic system but timing is on our side if we want to see lessened severe chances. If it was coming through mid afternoon we would have some bigger issues. I am surpsied looking at temps at how quickly we recover and get into the upper 60s tomorrow morning. Huge temp gradient between here and Raleigh tomorrow as the front crosses.
 
That triple point spot is looking pretty good. UH keeps coming up. Should be Poppin around 7 o'clock near Ms al border
 
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