Pretty dynamic system but cape may be lacking
You beat me to it lol. Although I was going to wait until a risk area was outlined, either snowflakes or severe weather maybe both ?Pretty dynamic system but cape may be lacking
Lines up fairly well with current models. You'll probably see more shifts though. Wether you have a gulf hugger that only gets about a 100 or so miles inland or one that goes north of the apps
Gotta watch that point right to the southeast of the low. pressure falls will back the winds. Making for locally higher shear .? Will probably start getting some decent height falls as storms move to around the Florida Alabama state line.What really concerns me about this in the Carolinas is the potential for a sub 1000mb low to pass through the western piedmont and locally back sfc winds and help pull in 60+ dews. Timing isn't ideal for severe weather so that may be a saving factor vs this coming through late in the afternoon. We have though seen these sfc lows have associated supercells tucked near the triple point/tmbView attachment 114997
View attachment 114998
What we don't want here is an icon like solution where the system is slower and farther NW giving us more time for WAA and an larger warm sector. The big bugaboo in the forecast will be these old fronts and low amplitude waves through Thursday. The more that front is suppressed south the more likely we are to see WAA ride over a relatively cool stable sfc dome with pretty significant divergence over top which means a lot of elevated convection and rain but could help pin the sfc warm front southGotta watch that point right to the southeast of the low. pressure falls will back the winds. Making for locally higher shear .? Will probably start getting some decent height falls as storms move to around the Florida Alabama state line.
We just saw a ef4 in Iowa from the triple point that happened there a few days ago so will see what happens.