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Severe 3/1-4 SEVERE WEATHER

weatherfide said:

000
FXUS64 KBMX 031517
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
917 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR THE ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...
Issued at 917 AM CST FRI MAR 3 2023

Mesoscale update.

The atmospheric conditions will be quite unusual today as a
powerful shortwave moves from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the
Ohio Valley. Extremely strong wind fields will accompany this
system throughout the column as a surface low deepens to around
978 mb near Paducah at noon today. The warmth and quality of
moisture already in place across Alabama would normally point to a
tornado outbreak. However, there is one significantly negative
ingredient today which makes this setup so unique, warm advection
at 600 mb. It is not often that high severe weather parameters are
wasted in Alabama, especially in the presence of height and
pressure falls. However, it appears that nearly all pre-frontal
development will be restricted by this warm layer. Healthy
updrafts should be confined along the cold front where a QLCS is
currently being observed in eastern Mississippi. The QLCS is
quickly approaching the AL/MS state line and will cross into our
northwestern counties by 10 AM. As this moves across our forecast
area, the main impacts should be across our northern two rows of
counties, closer in proximity to the upper-level support and
slightly cooler mid-level temperatures. With strong wind fields in
place, these storms may be rather efficient at producing wind
gusts of 60-70 mph. A couple of line-embedded tornadoes are also
possible. Farther south, the mid-level warm layer will become
increasingly prohibitive to updraft development, so much so, that
dewpoints of 70F will not be sufficient for deep convection.

It appears the warm nose aloft is still there over most of AL and probably GA, too. I don't think we are getting 70F dews, so this will limit updrafts and the strong upper level wind fields will tear apart anything taking it's sweet time lifting from the lower levels.
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That really is a good thing, because the STPs on the HRRR are over 6 in a lot of areas. If storms broke through today, they could have been extremely intense in central and north GA and AL.
 
Cbmatt2408 said:
That really is a good thing, because the STPs on the HRRR are over 6 in a lot of areas. If storms broke through today, they could have been extremely intense in central and north GA and AL.
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With that said I wonder why the SPC felt the need to expand the enhanced area again which now covers more areas.
day1otlk_1630.gif
 
ForsythSnow said:
With that said I wonder why the SPC felt the need to expand the enhanced area again which now covers more areas.
day1otlk_1630.gif
Click to expand...

refcmp_uh001h.us_se.png

This is the first run that has shown supercells south of Atlanta. I would say everyone from Columbus, GA north in the West GA/East AL corridor need to be on alert today. If something like this one above forms, the atmosphere is spinning violently. The sun is also breaking through north of LaGrange now and were about to top 70.
 
Sun has popped out here in NW Paulding county, don’t need no spinners, we on the 11 yr anniversary of tornadoes hitting Paulding county and my house got damage then.
 
The line is moving pretty efficiently through AL at the moment. Nothing very severe with it, though. You can see a graphical representation of the HRRR's severe parameters by looking at the simulated satellite/radar. Notice that the storms south of Atlanta are not very tall. This is the main problem with getting severe today. The updrafts just can't be maintained very well with the warm air in the mid-levels and high upper level winds. I bet if the wind shear was a category lower, they could, though.HRRR.png
 
Winds already picking up here and it looks like storms are going to hold together longer and getting this broken up line of storms is worrisome in a highly favorable environment.
 
Here in far SE Bartow Co, we just had some showers pass through and now the sun is peaking out. Dew point is up 2 points (now 67 at my nearest weather station) in the last hour, too. Definitely has that unsettled feel.
 
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