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Tropical 2026 Tropics Thread 🌀

We've still got a long ways to go before the start of the hurricane season, but I'd definitely lean to a below-to-near normal season at the moment.

El Niño appears likely to develop by the summer, which will likely increase wind shear over the deep tropics. I'll release a more detailed forecast in late March.

Dr. Levi Cowan had an informative tweet on how ENSO will affect the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season:
 
Snowfan said:
Click to expand...


My thoughts on this newest Euro 3.4 prog:

- They’ve generally been getting stronger the last few months.

-This run implies a super Nino peak.

-Keep in mind, however, that this is a prog of ONI, not RONI. RONI currently is ~0.5C lower. So, this implies Aug RONI to be near +2.1 -0.5 = +1.6.

-Keep in mind that the Euro has a warm bias in 3.4 of several tenths. So, a bc prog of RONI could very well be in the low +1s range.
 
JB recently said that the 2015 season is a prime analog to consider. Hope he’s right.
 
I have released my preliminary forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on my website. I agree with the consensus of a below-average season. While the Atlantic has not had a truly below average season since 2015, I think there's a very strong chance that changes this year. Unlike 2023, I do not expect the Atlantic to be warm enough to counter the Niño effects, and I also expect a stronger Niño than 2018 (which was also a Niño year that ended up above-average).
https://www.cyclonicfury.com/2026/03/31/2026atloutlookmar/

CFForecastMar2026.png
 
Im not predicting anything but if the models are right this may be a truly dead season haha

It's been a very long time since we've had one I will say that. I mean truly dead only a few even fish storms. Not like last year which still got to M
 
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