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Tropical 2026 Tropics Thread 🌀
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
lexxnchloe
Member
Storm One!!
lexxnchloe
Member
We've still got a long ways to go before the start of the hurricane season, but I'd definitely lean to a below-to-near normal season at the moment.
El Niño appears likely to develop by the summer, which will likely increase wind shear over the deep tropics. I'll release a more detailed forecast in late March.
Dr. Levi Cowan had an informative tweet on how ENSO will affect the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season:
El Niño appears likely to develop by the summer, which will likely increase wind shear over the deep tropics. I'll release a more detailed forecast in late March.
Dr. Levi Cowan had an informative tweet on how ENSO will affect the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season:
NoSnowATL
Member
If it doesn’t hit land it doesn't count.
Shaggy
Member
We will need a TC hit to wipe away the 2 year long deficit of 25 inches here
My thoughts on this newest Euro 3.4 prog:
- They’ve generally been getting stronger the last few months.
-This run implies a super Nino peak.
-Keep in mind, however, that this is a prog of ONI, not RONI. RONI currently is ~0.5C lower. So, this implies Aug RONI to be near +2.1 -0.5 = +1.6.
-Keep in mind that the Euro has a warm bias in 3.4 of several tenths. So, a bc prog of RONI could very well be in the low +1s range.
NoSnowATL
Member
9-11 TS
2-4 Real hurricanes
3 fake Hurricanes
2 Majors ( no US landfalls)
2-4 Real hurricanes
3 fake Hurricanes
2 Majors ( no US landfalls)
I have released my preliminary forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on my website. I agree with the consensus of a below-average season. While the Atlantic has not had a truly below average season since 2015, I think there's a very strong chance that changes this year. Unlike 2023, I do not expect the Atlantic to be warm enough to counter the Niño effects, and I also expect a stronger Niño than 2018 (which was also a Niño year that ended up above-average).
https://www.cyclonicfury.com/2026/03/31/2026atloutlookmar/
https://www.cyclonicfury.com/2026/03/31/2026atloutlookmar/
Brent
Member
Im not predicting anything but if the models are right this may be a truly dead season haha
It's been a very long time since we've had one I will say that. I mean truly dead only a few even fish storms. Not like last year which still got to M
It's been a very long time since we've had one I will say that. I mean truly dead only a few even fish storms. Not like last year which still got to M
Makes perfect sense to me.
From JB:
April 5, 2026
The forecast numbers have been taken way down.
The Canadian model has been thrown out.
The European indicates a powerful El Niño and a negative AMO "look".
The closest analog is 2015.
The impact forecast is a roll of the dice.
Impacts will likely be below normal and scattered.
There is always the threat of one (un)lucky punch.
Early season Gulf or SE system a concern
The Western Pacific will take up the Global slack.
Eastern Pacific Mexican higher impact season possible
The forecast numbers for the 2026 season
Total storms: 9-13
Hurricanes: 3-5
Major Hurricanes: 1-2
Landfalling U.S. hurricanes: 1-2
Impact storms on the U.S. when at least a warning is issued: 3
ACE Index: 85-105
The closest analog is 2015
From JB:
April 5, 2026
The forecast numbers have been taken way down.
The Canadian model has been thrown out.
The European indicates a powerful El Niño and a negative AMO "look".
The closest analog is 2015.
The impact forecast is a roll of the dice.
Impacts will likely be below normal and scattered.
There is always the threat of one (un)lucky punch.
Early season Gulf or SE system a concern
The Western Pacific will take up the Global slack.
Eastern Pacific Mexican higher impact season possible
The forecast numbers for the 2026 season
Total storms: 9-13
Hurricanes: 3-5
Major Hurricanes: 1-2
Landfalling U.S. hurricanes: 1-2
Impact storms on the U.S. when at least a warning is issued: 3
ACE Index: 85-105
The closest analog is 2015
University of Arizona really went against the consensus, 20-9-4 with 155 ACE. A strange forecast to say the least, considering NATL MDR SSTs aren't likely going to be nearly as warm as 2023.
https://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/2026-04/April-2026-Tropical-Cyclone-Forecast.pdf
https://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/2026-04/April-2026-Tropical-Cyclone-Forecast.pdf
NoSnowATL
Member
A Met over at Accuweather says anyone from South Texas to Maine need to be ready this year. What a job
That about seals it for Southern California, they're going to get the next 344 hr cat 5 for sure now!
Ryan has leaned in hard to the social media clickbait trends.
Yes, but a 126hr cat 5 is pretty impressive vs a 344 hr.
The recurve will impact our pattern in ~20 days
Two forecasts were released this morning.
Colorado State University - 13-6-2 with 90 ACE:
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2026-04.pdf
Tropical Storm Risk - 12-5-1 with 66 ACE:
https://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastApril2026.pdf
Colorado State University - 13-6-2 with 90 ACE:
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2026-04.pdf
Tropical Storm Risk - 12-5-1 with 66 ACE:
https://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastApril2026.pdf
True.
BrickTamland
Member
Shaggy
Member
Wpac with a monster
IR Satellite Loop for Typhoon SINLAKU | Tropical Tidbits https://share.google/Fvf1dBIxSi9mixWYa
IR Satellite Loop for Typhoon SINLAKU | Tropical Tidbits https://share.google/Fvf1dBIxSi9mixWYa
Guam might get slammed, the entire island chain associated with it too.
Shaggy
Member
Perfect satellite presentation
IR Satellite Loop for Super Typhoon SINLAKU | Tropical Tidbits https://share.google/9N6TMOLNKCL1ypOZp
IR Satellite Loop for Super Typhoon SINLAKU | Tropical Tidbits https://share.google/9N6TMOLNKCL1ypOZp
Absolutely beautiful.
Downeastnc
Member
Looks to maybe get Tinian and Siapan with the center....Guam gusting to near 80 well away from center.
Shaggy
Member
Downeastnc
Member
Saipan
Heavy Rain Fog and Windy
78°F
26°C
Heavy Rain Fog and Windy
78°F
26°C
| Humidity | 97% |
| Wind Speed | NE 62 G 101 mph |
| Barometer | 28.56 in (969.0 mb) |
| Dewpoint | 77°F (25°C) |
| Visibility | 0.50 mi |
| Heat Index | 81°F (27°C) |
| Last update | 14 Apr 1:54 pm ChST |
Shaggy
Member
Vis/SWIR Satellite Loop for Super Typhoon SINLAKU | Tropical Tidbits https://share.google/NgqU9ddvlBVDTcs4P
Shaggy
Member
Their last obs was gusting to 108mph and they may get a bit lucky as it looked like either dry air or an EWRC had begun and the eyewall seems to have started collapsing
Downeastnc
Member
Dont see to many obs like this.....
Light Rain Fog and Windy
78°F
26°C
Saipan Island, Saipan International Airport (PGSN)
Lat: 15.12°NLon: 145.73°EElev: 217ft.
Light Rain Fog and Windy
78°F
26°C
| Humidity | 100% |
| Wind Speed | NE 82 G 130 mph |
| Barometer | NA |
| Dewpoint | 78°F (26°C) |
| Visibility | 0.50 mi |
| Heat Index | 81°F (27°C) |
| Last update | 14 Apr 9:54 pm ChST |
Shaggy
Member
Dont see to many obs like this.....
Saipan Island, Saipan International Airport (PGSN)
Lat: 15.12°NLon: 145.73°EElev: 217ft.
Light Rain Fog and Windy
78°F
26°C
Humidity 100% Wind Speed NE 82 G 130 mph Barometer NA Dewpoint 78°F (26°C) Visibility 0.50 mi Heat Index 81°F (27°C) Last update 14 Apr 9:54 pm ChST
Short lived relief as they sit in the eye for a little while. Eye looks to be improving as it finishes the EWRC
