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Tropical 2026 Tropics Thread 🌀
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
lexxnchloe
Member
Storm One!!
lexxnchloe
Member
We've still got a long ways to go before the start of the hurricane season, but I'd definitely lean to a below-to-near normal season at the moment.
El Niño appears likely to develop by the summer, which will likely increase wind shear over the deep tropics. I'll release a more detailed forecast in late March.
Dr. Levi Cowan had an informative tweet on how ENSO will affect the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season:
El Niño appears likely to develop by the summer, which will likely increase wind shear over the deep tropics. I'll release a more detailed forecast in late March.
Dr. Levi Cowan had an informative tweet on how ENSO will affect the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season:
NoSnowATL
Member
If it doesn’t hit land it doesn't count.
Shaggy
Member
We will need a TC hit to wipe away the 2 year long deficit of 25 inches here
My thoughts on this newest Euro 3.4 prog:
- They’ve generally been getting stronger the last few months.
-This run implies a super Nino peak.
-Keep in mind, however, that this is a prog of ONI, not RONI. RONI currently is ~0.5C lower. So, this implies Aug RONI to be near +2.1 -0.5 = +1.6.
-Keep in mind that the Euro has a warm bias in 3.4 of several tenths. So, a bc prog of RONI could very well be in the low +1s range.
NoSnowATL
Member
9-11 TS
2-4 Real hurricanes
3 fake Hurricanes
2 Majors ( no US landfalls)
2-4 Real hurricanes
3 fake Hurricanes
2 Majors ( no US landfalls)
I have released my preliminary forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on my website. I agree with the consensus of a below-average season. While the Atlantic has not had a truly below average season since 2015, I think there's a very strong chance that changes this year. Unlike 2023, I do not expect the Atlantic to be warm enough to counter the Niño effects, and I also expect a stronger Niño than 2018 (which was also a Niño year that ended up above-average).
https://www.cyclonicfury.com/2026/03/31/2026atloutlookmar/
https://www.cyclonicfury.com/2026/03/31/2026atloutlookmar/
Brent
Member
Im not predicting anything but if the models are right this may be a truly dead season haha
It's been a very long time since we've had one I will say that. I mean truly dead only a few even fish storms. Not like last year which still got to M
It's been a very long time since we've had one I will say that. I mean truly dead only a few even fish storms. Not like last year which still got to M
Makes perfect sense to me.
From JB:
April 5, 2026
The forecast numbers have been taken way down.
The Canadian model has been thrown out.
The European indicates a powerful El Niño and a negative AMO "look".
The closest analog is 2015.
The impact forecast is a roll of the dice.
Impacts will likely be below normal and scattered.
There is always the threat of one (un)lucky punch.
Early season Gulf or SE system a concern
The Western Pacific will take up the Global slack.
Eastern Pacific Mexican higher impact season possible
The forecast numbers for the 2026 season
Total storms: 9-13
Hurricanes: 3-5
Major Hurricanes: 1-2
Landfalling U.S. hurricanes: 1-2
Impact storms on the U.S. when at least a warning is issued: 3
ACE Index: 85-105
The closest analog is 2015
From JB:
April 5, 2026
The forecast numbers have been taken way down.
The Canadian model has been thrown out.
The European indicates a powerful El Niño and a negative AMO "look".
The closest analog is 2015.
The impact forecast is a roll of the dice.
Impacts will likely be below normal and scattered.
There is always the threat of one (un)lucky punch.
Early season Gulf or SE system a concern
The Western Pacific will take up the Global slack.
Eastern Pacific Mexican higher impact season possible
The forecast numbers for the 2026 season
Total storms: 9-13
Hurricanes: 3-5
Major Hurricanes: 1-2
Landfalling U.S. hurricanes: 1-2
Impact storms on the U.S. when at least a warning is issued: 3
ACE Index: 85-105
The closest analog is 2015