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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

SD said:
All I'm saying is if the last 3 or 4 years of may GFS runs where archived somewhere i bet 60%+ have the same hurricane past D10 in May and early June. They said the gulf/Caribbean should get interesting over the next week
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A few euro ensembles have something in the GOM around the same time frame so that period might squeak out a weak TS if the models keep this thing alive for a few more runs
 
Pretty decent agreement on the cmc, icon, euro, robo euro at trying to spin up something along the tail of this weekends front in the Bahamas
 
Today I predicted 14/9/3 and ACE of 139 in seasonal contests being held elsewhere.
 
FL damage est. from hurricanes (In 2025 $ billions):

1960: Donna 4

1964: Cleo 1; Dora 3

1965: Betsy 1

1975: Eloise 2

1992: Andrew 58

1995: Erin 1; Opal 6

1998: Georges 1

1999: Irene 2

2004: Charley 26; Frances 15; Ivan 24; Jeanne 13

2005: Dennis 2; Katrina 1; Wilma 31

2016: Hermine 1; Matthew 4

2017: Irma 65

2018: Michael 23

2020: Sally <9

2022: Ian 110; Nicole 1

2023: Idalia 3

2024: Helene 36, Milton 14

————————


-1992 had 58 damage from Andrew but they didn’t have another comparable year til 2004

-2004-5, combined: 112; but Citizens Property Insurance had just been created; also, FL didn’t have another comparable period til 2017-8; so things got much better

-2017-8, combined: 88; but that was followed by a not nearly as bad 2019-21 overall thus helping things though Sally of 2020 was quite bad for Pensacola

-2022-4, combined: 164 (worst 3 year period ever leading to insurance crisis) but there was some stabilization and even slight premium drops in 2025 due to 11 new companies entering market as well as help from Citizens

-2025+ will, needless to say, be extremely crucial for the stability of the FL housing market/insurance. The major hurricanes, especially, need to avoid FL for at least the next couple of years to help things turnaround.
 
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But what about the tropics? I am sticking by my call for 22 named storms, 12 hurricanes and 6 major cyclones. There is plenty of warm water across the Atlantic Basin, and those below-normal thermal anomalies over the eastern portion of the MDR (Cape Verde Islands and vicinity) will start to warm up soon. The hyperactive ITCZ will soon make advances after the southwesterly wind-induced shear goes away. There could be an early case of warm-core cyclogenesis like the GFS series is indicating near Florida in the longer term, but other schemes have backed off on the possibility. I am also watching for the start of thunderstorm season over the Intermountain Region and Prairie Provinces, based on the very deep, well-formed trough complex showing up in the Pacific Northwest. Analogs also point toward an energetic summer monsoon in the West between July 15 and September 8, which has some support from the CFS and CanSIPS projections.





Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Saturday, May 31, 2025 at 10:35 P.M. CT​
 
000
ABNT20 KNHC 021721
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Offshore of the Southeastern U.S. Coast
A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form near or
offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast during the next couple of
days. If the system remains offshore, the low could gradually
develop some subtropical or tropical characteristics later this
week while moving northeastward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
First lemon of the season.
 
SD said:
Not enough time to get going
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NHC agrees

Near the Southeastern U.S. Coast:
Showers and thunderstorms located over the Florida peninsula,
the southeastern U.S. coast, the northwestern Bahamas, and the
adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters are associated with a broad trough
of low pressure. A non-tropical low pressure area is forecast to
form from this system on Thursday, but it is becoming increasingly
likely that this development will occur inland over South Carolina
and North Carolina. As a result, the low's chances of acquiring
subtropical or tropical characteristics have diminished. Regardless
of development, heavy rainfall could cause some flash flooding
along portions of the southeastern U.S. coast today and on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0
percent.
 
SST's look just fine for a big season

1749058485540.png


Imagine how down in the mouth everyone would be if these were the SST's now. June 1985

1749076974953.png
 
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