Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

[Brent]

Still nothing in the outlook

 

[JHS]

Gfs is awfully consistent with it though

Of course the exact track changes every run, but it has now been there for a while now and is up to a day 10 threat now. I think we will either see other models pick it up, or the GFS lose it by Sunday at 12z. My money is on the GFS losing it by then.

 

[SD]

Gfs is awfully consistent with it though

All I'm saying is if the last 3 or 4 years of may GFS runs where archived somewhere i bet 60%+ have the same hurricane past D10 in May and early June. They said the gulf/Caribbean should get interesting over the next week

 

[Brent]

I don't buy into a big hurricane threatening anybody but I can definitely see some early season slop

 

[Shaggy]

All I'm saying is if the last 3 or 4 years of may GFS runs where archived somewhere i bet 60%+ have the same hurricane past D10 in May and early June. They said the gulf/Caribbean should get interesting over the next week

A few euro ensembles have something in the GOM around the same time frame so that period might squeak out a weak TS if the models keep this thing alive for a few more runs

 

[lexxnchloe]

Gfs is awfully consistent with it though

 

[Brent]

But yeah some of these people on Facebook seem to think we're gonna have some full blown amazing hurricane and I just don't buy it

Maybe in a couple months

 

[Shaggy]

But yeah some of these people on Facebook seem to think we're gonna have some full blown amazing hurricane and I just don't buy it

Maybe in a couple months

Yeah that doesnt seem likely. Climatology doesn't offer much hope for a full blown cane.

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[SD]

Pretty decent agreement on the cmc, icon, euro, robo euro at trying to spin up something along the tail of this weekends front in the Bahamas

 

[vtrap90]

18z GFS, 10 days away.

 

[GaWx]

Today I predicted 14/9/3 and ACE of 139 in seasonal contests being held elsewhere.

 

[GaWx]

FL damage est. from hurricanes (In 2025 $ billions):

1960: Donna 4

1964: Cleo 1; Dora 3

1965: Betsy 1

1975: Eloise 2

1992: Andrew 58

1995: Erin 1; Opal 6

1998: Georges 1

1999: Irene 2

2004: Charley 26; Frances 15; Ivan 24; Jeanne 13

2005: Dennis 2; Katrina 1; Wilma 31

2016: Hermine 1; Matthew 4

2017: Irma 65

2018: Michael 23

2020: Sally <9

2022: Ian 110; Nicole 1

2023: Idalia 3

2024: Helene 36, Milton 14

————————


-1992 had 58 damage from Andrew but they didn’t have another comparable year til 2004

-2004-5, combined: 112; but Citizens Property Insurance had just been created; also, FL didn’t have another comparable period til 2017-8; so things got much better

-2017-8, combined: 88; but that was followed by a not nearly as bad 2019-21 overall thus helping things though Sally of 2020 was quite bad for Pensacola

-2022-4, combined: 164 (worst 3 year period ever leading to insurance crisis) but there was some stabilization and even slight premium drops in 2025 due to 11 new companies entering market as well as help from Citizens

-2025+ will, needless to say, be extremely crucial for the stability of the FL housing market/insurance. The major hurricanes, especially, need to avoid FL for at least the next couple of years to help things turnaround.

 

[lexxnchloe]

But what about the tropics? I am sticking by my call for 22 named storms, 12 hurricanes and 6 major cyclones. There is plenty of warm water across the Atlantic Basin, and those below-normal thermal anomalies over the eastern portion of the MDR (Cape Verde Islands and vicinity) will start to warm up soon. The hyperactive ITCZ will soon make advances after the southwesterly wind-induced shear goes away. There could be an early case of warm-core cyclogenesis like the GFS series is indicating near Florida in the longer term, but other schemes have backed off on the possibility. I am also watching for the start of thunderstorm season over the Intermountain Region and Prairie Provinces, based on the very deep, well-formed trough complex showing up in the Pacific Northwest. Analogs also point toward an energetic summer monsoon in the West between July 15 and September 8, which has some support from the CFS and CanSIPS projections.

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Saturday, May 31, 2025 at 10:35 P.M. CT​