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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

LC

You should be extremely concerned by what is happening with the ITCZ, which is developing full-tilt tropical waves running through equatorial Africa and the Atlantic Ocean into the Amazon Basin. At some point, probably sooner rather than later, one of these impulses will gain in latitude and come through the very warm waters of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Since the eastern Pacific Oceanis cool from offshore of California to below Central America, wind shear should be minimal. I think this is going to be an active and intense hurricane season with impacts on the Gulf shoreline and Atalntic coast.
 
The Euro Weeklies are back to an elevated risk. A couple of weeks ago, it had a moderately elevated risk for the week 5/26-6/1. It later backed off of that. But now the week of 6/9-15 has a significantly elevated risk vs climo fwiw:

IMG_3654.pngIMG_3653.png
 
GaWx said:
I’ve never been a fan of the wide ranges used by NOAA, cyclonicwx, AccuWx, and some others. Kudos to CSU for still having exact numbers/no ranges.
Click to expand...

I've never been a fan of any of them because it is one of the biggest guesses in meteorology and one of the most useless.
 
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Alvin has been born in the E Pac, the first named storm of the season in the N Hem. Will move N toward Cabo but weaken well before. Should give them some rain Sat:

Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025
800 AM MST Thu May 29 2025

Tropical Storm Alvin has formed several hundred n mi south of
southwestern Mexico. Satellite imagery shows thunderstorm activity
has increased and has become more organized around the center.
Although the TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates have been steady at
2.0/30 kt, the objective satellite intensity estimates are higher
and generally between 35 and 45 kt. Based on a consensus of the
data, the initial intensity has been increased to 35 kt for this
advisory.

The initial motion is 315/9 kt. The storm is expected to continue
toward the northwest today, then begin turning toward the
north-northwest tomorrow as it moves around a ridge centered over
central Mexico. By tomorrow night, Alvin will begin moving northward
as it is influenced my a mid-level cut-off low. The NHC track
forecast is generally similar to the previous one.

Alvin should continue to strengthen today, within a favorable
environment of warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear for
about the next 24 hours. The NHC peak intensity remains at 50 kt,
which is near the high end of the model guidance. Weakening is
expected to begin tomorrow as the storm moves into progressively
higher shear and a drier environment with cooler SSTs. There is high
confidence that the system will weaken to a remnant low before it
nears the Baja California Peninsula.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 13.8N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 14.7N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 16.1N 108.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 17.6N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 19.1N 108.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 20.7N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/1200Z 21.9N 108.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Mora/Cangialosi
 
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