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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread

Chazwin said:
It’s probably not going to be too far off. Lots of similarities to that very active 2020 season and SST’s are already ridiculously warm. I expect there’s a good chance we see an early start to things with a storm in May
Click to expand...
They did mention it’s the highest total of storms that has ever came out on their ‘early’ tropical season outlook since they began issuing April outlooks for tropical season!
 
Chazwin said:
It’s probably not going to be too far off. Lots of similarities to that very active 2020 season and SST’s are already ridiculously warm. I expect there’s a good chance we see an early start to things with a storm in May
Click to expand...

Yeah the lack of winter in the southeast kept the SST's warm for sure. It's been a storyline for months in the off season

Yeah it's bullish for sure but if there was
ever a setup to be bullish this fits the bill
 
Larry Cosgrove 18/10/6

If you look at the temperature and 500MB anomaly predictions, bubbles of warm air advance in front of each trough/storm migrate across the lower 48 states. But the real heat waves, and there should be plenty, will lurch from south to north once the polar and subtropical jet streams shift to higher latitudes. I am thinking that we will plateau at a moderate La Nina, following the ECMWF and IRI modeling plumes, probably by October 1. The preliminary hurricane forecast I made is a bit more conservative than what I am seeing with CSU and NOAA sources, if only because the upper westerlies may stick around into mid-August. That said, my call of 18N/10H/6MH implies risks to both the Gulf and Atlantic shorelines, and may still be an issue through Halloween.

For now, just concentrate on severe weather and flooding rain risks, I will present outlines for extreme heat and tropical cyclones in coming weeks. And the forecast will not be dull, believe me.





Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Sunday, April 7, 2024 at 1:00 A.M. CT​
 
TC Olga was on the first advisory forecast to only be a tropical.storm. Then it was a cane for one plot before weakening. Of course it undergoes RI and is now at 120kts. With the numbers of storms increasing that undergo RI its a concern they are going with such high numbers this year.

www.tropicaltidbits.com

IR Satellite Loop for Tropical Cyclone OLGA | Tropical Tidbits

Tropical Cyclone OLGA IR Satellite Loop
www.tropicaltidbits.com www.tropicaltidbits.com
 
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