Tropical 2023 Tropical thread

[Brent]

Expected to be short lived but might be Arlene

 

[Downeastnc]

Pretty cool considering today if the first day of the official tropical season....

 

[Bham 99]

Expected to be short lived but might be Arlene View attachment 135346

Interesting that it's going from north to south

 

[Chazwin]

Interesting that it's going from north to south

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen that in the GOM

 

[lexxnchloe]

First hurricane?

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[accu35]

There’s definitely a storm signal coming.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Just need it west about 100 miles.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Now this is a good look this far out.

 

[Bones]

Now this is a good look this far out.

You wanted it west 100 miles there you go !!!

 

[lexxnchloe]

Texas this time

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[NoSnowATL]

Now i need it to stop trending west. Dang.

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[accu35]

Texas this time

18z Louisiana/MS

 

[accu35]

Really think a gulf storm is on the table with consistent runs. Not sure how strong and still a ways off but something for sure.

 

[Shaggy]

The new wpac typhoon looks good and may overperform a little

 

[lexxnchloe]

Just need it west about 100 miles.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Never want to be in the jackpot zone this far out. But I like it.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Never want to be in the jackpot zone this far out. But I like it.

I'm supposed to be in Destin from June 20-27.

 

[NoSnowATL]

I'm supposed to be in Destin from June 20-27.

You should be fine, this wont happen. GFS is just hurricane crazy as always.

 

[NoSnowATL]

And back to Texas.

 

[Shaggy]

You should be fine, this wont happen. GFS is just hurricane crazy as always.

It's done well predicting the wpac activity so far this season. Picked up gensis and strength on the super typhoon last week well in advance

 

[NoSnowATL]

Fake out on this latest run. Heads towards LA then turns south to Mexico. GFS is on drugs.

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[Bham 99]

Storm seem to take that same track at least a lot in the past 10 years

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[NoSnowATL]

WTFK

 

[NoSnowATL]

SO anywhere from Mexico to Maine is in the threat area.

 

[Chazwin]

SO anywhere from Mexico to Maine is in the threat area.

Wherever it is, the GFS is definitely insistent on something in the Gulf in the 19-22nd timeframe. As much as I blast, I gotta admit it’s a really good job in the western Pacific and Indian Ocean so far this year. Also development in the Gulf during mid-late June does have climo support for early in an El-Niño

 

[Downeastnc]

Wherever it is, the GFS is definitely insistent on something in the Gulf in the 19-22nd timeframe. As much as I blast, I gotta admit it’s a really good job in the western Pacific and Indian Ocean so far this year. Also development in the Gulf during mid-late June does have climo support for early in an El-Niño

The GFS seemed to do a good job with picking out storms a few weeks out last year....

 

[NoSnowATL]

?️

 

[Chazwin]

The GFS seemed to do a good job with picking out storms a few weeks out last year....

It did… which makes it even more incredible just how absolutely worthless it is during the winter.

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[severestorm]

Breathtaking

 

[NoSnowATL]

And she’s gone.

 

[Downeastnc]

 

[lexxnchloe]

And she’s gone.

Back a little bit. Enough for a tropical storm warning for the OBX

 

[Snowfan]

The Euro ensembles for a couple of runs is sniffing something next week.