The 6z GFS is probably the most likely solution based on the pattern we are in.
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Tropical 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Henry2326
Member
That really isn’t that far of a spread when you consider the system hasn’t even developed yet. Also the Euro and GFS continue to be in strong agreement.
Ton of agreement with the 6z GEFS in Florida.
This actually may be the one. Crazy how far south this is and may even brush the coast of South America, if it survives the graveyard of the Atlantic (which all signs indicate it should) really no exit route at that point. Then it becomes all about environmental conditions, land interactions, etc on just how strong or weak it will be.
Shaggy
Member
Landfall that far south very rarely ever translates into any fun winds here. We could use the rain but it's almost deer season and dry is fine right now. We would need a miracle like some sort of jet help to get the wind up this far
LickWx
Member
Or a hard turn . It’s ours . Watch the Atlantic .
iGRXY
Member
The eastern side of the Gulf up the Apps probably should really watch this very carefully. We are transitioning into a fall time pattern with a lot of toughs swinging through and this is just begging to be picked up pulled NE once it gets into the Gulf.
Shaggy
Member
Possible and the gefs had plenty of members east of Florida at 6z
Euro and GFS worlds apart on development however, end result very similar but the euro very slow development and GFS has a TC within 48 hrs... I'd lean Euro here. That slow development could have track impact down the line, time will tell
LickWx
Member
Need it to strengthen up fast . If that happens maybe . Just maybe .I mean anything is possible....... rare but possible
Taylor C
Member
The area is looking very disturbed this morning on satellite with a lot of strong thunderstorm activity.
Yeah pretty vigorous this morning, let's see who wins the first forecast battle.... GFS with early development or not
Taylor C
Member
This may bring more rain to PR and the COC could pass relatively close if this tracks in the wake of Fiona as some guidance suggest. The operational NAVGEM remains steady with this idea and has support from the GFS ensembles.
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Shaggy
Member
Hopefully they will invest it soon so we can get a thread started for it
Of course this would come at the worst time for my family. We're supposed to race our wiener dog at the Cary Oktoberfest on October 1st. If the GFS was right, this would be the look at race time:
Luckly things will/may change as we get closer.
Henry2326
Member
Goodness gracious....12z GFS
Henry2326
Member
Thanks