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Tropical 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread

I think if this holds on to the convection through dmin then it is gonna get an invest and a increase km probabilities from the NHC

I don't think it's holding onto convection. I can see the area with the most vigorous Lower to Mid-Level spin displaced to the NE of the strong convection. As forecasted, it's getting pulled NNW as the Cape Verde Wave approaches. I agree that the probabilities with this system have definitely gone up, but we're going to need to wait for these two waves to finish dancing.

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I wouldn't feel good if we were at D10 with the euro being correct. It's probably landfall south of NC but that's an ugly pattern for the EC
Yep

ec-fast_z500a_atl_11.png
 
Most gefs members favors a eastern gulf
Maybe that will be right, but come in as a tropical storm, not a hurricane and move right up from NW Florida up through the mountains of NC and Tenn. That might finally give most of us some rain.
 
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