Tropical 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread

[jeremyt]

Yeah I get it. Weather is the weather, and not an exact science. And maybe September picks up big time. But so far this one's just an epic fail, not sure how you get around it. If you publish and make public a scientific meteorological prediction (and it's done every year mind you) and it turns out to be the exact opposite, like polar opposites of the forecast....well it's just a funny fail that's all. Like all the "you had one job" memes. I get a kick out of those. Long range forecasting is really just entertainment for every season and I'm not really sure why it's published and given to the public at all. Just my opinion.

Duly noted! Still early but could be a bust or a peak to late bloomer! I laugh at the social media posts that declare it’s over. We haven’t even hit peak season! Not that I’m not wishing a landfall as I’ve lived through a few and the aftermath sucks but something to track would be nice!

 

[NCSNOW]

Want be much longer now. Blobs growing:

 

[smast16]

Wait... To have 15 more storms from August 15 (probably not much starting before this date) to say October 15 (realistic end) we would need to have one storm FORM every 4 days to reach that number. Seems a tad high, and I doubt we see an 'O' storm.

I'm not saying the season is doomed and blah blah, but I am doubting it's THAT active.

We've not had a storm since, so i'm updating, we are now at the point we need to have more than 1 storm every 4 days to reach that target.

 

[Taylor C]

There are a lot of strong prospects on satellite.

 

[SD]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a flurry of activity in the next 7 days followed by a dead period with another round of activity in the day 15-21 period

 

[NoSnowATL]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a flurry of activity in the next 7 days followed by a dead period with another round of activity in the day 15-21 period

Day 45-52 looks promising.

 

[SD]

Day 45-52 looks promising.

Gulf/carribbean look interesting in that time frame

 

[Brent]

The GFS is all over the place with that day 10 storm... Today's runs yeah not so good

 

[Shaggy]

The GFS is all over the place with that day 10 storm... Today's runs yeah not so good

At this point I revert back to only caring about 144 hrs and under. It's clear the models are pretty inconsistent after that time so anything beyond that is just good to look at for fun.

 

[Tarheel1]

The GFS is all over the place with that day 10 storm... Today's runs yeah not so good

Looks good to me! But, it’s the 18Z GFS

 

[Brent]

Looks good to me! But, it’s the 18Z GFSView attachment 120925View attachment 120924

Different storm. The original one goes into Mexico now

 

[lizajane]

I'm just waiting to see if both farmers almanacs are right.

 

[Brent]

I'm just waiting to see if both farmers almanacs are right.

What did that say.

The wave just off Africa is looking hot right now

 

[NCSNOW]

What did that say.

The wave just off Africa is looking hot right now

It aint gonna fish /ots thats for sure. Low rider track.

 

[accu35]

0z coming in further north with Icon/gfs

 

[Taylor C]

Good morning Atlantic, I see you remain active with persistent area of thunderstorms. More time and favorable conditions are ahead for you to become something more.

 

[NCSNOW]

Watching IR Loop, things are really starting to change. This wave in eastern Atlantic is really getting its act together more an more as we've been all noting , pointing out since yesterday. Ill be very surprised if this doesn't manage to get a circulation down to the surface and spin up into the next named storm here soon.

 

[Snowfan]

Season cancel.

 

[Arcc]

Season cancel.

Absolutely.

 

[Tarheel1]

Season cancel.

Yeah, his pattern recognition, is second to none! Especially in winter! ?