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Tropical 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread

metwannabe

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This actually may be the one. Crazy how far south this is and may even brush the coast of South America, if it survives the graveyard of the Atlantic (which all signs indicate it should) really no exit route at that point. Then it becomes all about environmental conditions, land interactions, etc on just how strong or weak it will be.
 

Shaggy

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This actually may be the one. Crazy how far south this is and may even brush the coast of South America, if it survives the graveyard of the Atlantic (which all signs indicate it should) really no exit route at that point. Then it becomes all about environmental conditions, land interactions, etc on just how strong or weak it will be.
Landfall that far south very rarely ever translates into any fun winds here. We could use the rain but it's almost deer season and dry is fine right now. We would need a miracle like some sort of jet help to get the wind up this far
 

Lickwx

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Landfall that far south very rarely ever translates into any fun winds here. We could use the rain but it's almost deer season and dry is fine right now. We would need a miracle like some sort of jet help to get the wind up this far
Or a hard turn . It’s ours . Watch the Atlantic .
 

iGRXY

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The eastern side of the Gulf up the Apps probably should really watch this very carefully. We are transitioning into a fall time pattern with a lot of toughs swinging through and this is just begging to be picked up pulled NE once it gets into the Gulf.
 

metwannabe

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Euro and GFS worlds apart on development however, end result very similar but the euro very slow development and GFS has a TC within 48 hrs... I'd lean Euro here. That slow development could have track impact down the line, time will tell
 

metwannabe

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Or a hard turn . It’s ours . Watch the Atlantic .
I mean anything is possible....... rare but possible

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Taylor C

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The area is looking very disturbed this morning on satellite with a lot of strong thunderstorm activity.
 

Taylor C

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This may bring more rain to PR and the COC could pass relatively close if this tracks in the wake of Fiona as some guidance suggest. The operational NAVGEM remains steady with this idea and has support from the GFS ensembles.
 
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FallsLake

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Of course this would come at the worst time for my family. We're supposed to race our wiener dog at the Cary Oktoberfest on October 1st. If the GFS was right, this would be the look at race time:
1663682948285.png
Luckly things will/may change as we get closer.
 

weatherfide

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Models showing any potential development anywhere or are things going to calm down
Euro has one coming off Africa and making it's way to the eastern Caribbean. GFS has a monster just west of Jamaica.
 

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