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Misc 2022-23 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

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I’ve got a bad feeling about today. I smell uneasiness

No worries, I think we'll struggle the week of Christmas with the western trough, but after the 25th it stays cold with @griteater Aleutian low bonanza, and a much improved pacific. But my guess is we lose the Atlantic blocking. Can't have both, existence would self implode.
 
No worries, I think we'll struggle the week of Christmas with the western trough, but after the 25th it stays cold with @griteater Aleutian low bonanza, and a much improved pacific. But my guess is we lose the Atlantic blocking. Can't have both, existence would self implode.
The 25th thru the end of the year into January matches the progression on Allan Huffmans post the other day. Anything before Christmas will be ice at best. Unless we stop the trend of dumping out west around the 20th that's just the way it is. A trough that strong dropping west has no choice but flex the SER out ahead until the cold gets here around Christmas. That is assuming the Aleutian low kicks it east like it should.
 
Some of my favorites:

"I'll get excited when it's inside ___ days"
"Wake me up when it shows something"
"Latest GFS looks horrible, winter cancel"
 
Why must people torture themselves with maps of anything past hour 172. Even that is pushing it.

Sure you can make note of overall patterns/setups on a global scale. But as model resolution increases, each error in the early forecasting period is exponentially compounded the further out in time you go. This leads to very bad forecasts post day 5.
 
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