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Misc 2022-23 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

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Bellingham, WA

It is extremely impressive to have a departure of 7.7 degrees in a very controlled oceanic/maritime climate.

December so far:
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Stevo24 said:
If there becomes a legit threat around the 27th is it more than likely just a North Carolina threat? It’s hard to tell when most posters are from NC.
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Honestly we have a 3 or 4 week window after Jan 10th ish and after that put a fork in this winter. Sux we waisted this block pattern but thats how we roll these days
 
Oconeexman said:
Honestly we have a 3 or 4 week window after Jan 10th ish and after that put a fork in this winter. Sux we waisted this block pattern but thats how we roll these days
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Your joking right? We have until March 15th to see like a HUGE storm anywhere in the SE... and it has snowed in early April in CLT of all places... like 5ish yrs ago.... jus sayin
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I can confirm this is fake news. My 7 inches of snow last winter says otherwise. Your a bigger warm weenie then me, you can’t see me in these snowy* streets
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I have to agree with him. Seems like all we get anymore is a northern wave diving and a Miller B evolution with a CAD component. I know Dec 2018 was like that at last I'm pretty sure last Jan was too. That's the only 2 big storms we've had. Seems like the winters of 16-17 and 17-18 only featured northern stream energy diving. I can't remember the last time a southern wave cruised across from TX to the Carolina's with snow on the northern edge. We've seen rainstorms do it sure. But haven't seen a southern slider be cold enough for snow since what? Jan 2014 or maybe Feb 2014?
 
SnowQueen said:
Your joking right? We have until March 15th to see like a HUGE storm anywhere in the SE... and it has snowed in early April in CLT of all places... like 5ish yrs ago.... jus sayin
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I haven't seen a big snowstorm in Feb, or March in the Carolina's in what seems like a decade. If you count novelty events where you get a dusting to an inch then sure. But the big storms that used to be common in Feb or early March haven't been happening lately.
 
Stevo24 said:
I just want to watch a big dog storm start forming out around texas and grow as it comes across and plows into the Carolinas. And I want the 540 line to be around Columbia sc. is that too much to ask?
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It very much so is. I live a mile below that EVIL I-85 and it's even too much fore to ask.... but I err on the hopeful side. Didn't SC get a nice storm a decade or so ago? Like even between CHS and CAE saw good snow right???
 
SnowQueen said:
Your joking right? We have until March 15th to see like a HUGE storm anywhere in the SE... and it has snowed in early April in CLT of all places... like 5ish yrs ago.... jus sayin
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Oh please, nobody cares about snow after Feb 15. Late Feb and March snow usually melts within a day. Anybody who loves snow would prefer snow before Feb 15.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I haven't seen a big snowstorm in Feb, or March in the Carolina's in what seems like a decade. If you count novelty events where you get a dusting to an inch then sure. But the big storms that used to be common in Feb or early March haven't been happening lately.
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Hasn’t quite been a decade… the last good February for us in the Carolinas was back in 2015. I wouldn’t dismiss February this just based on Niña climo. The Niña is steadily weakening and honestly the behavior we’re seeing from is more in line with a neutral ENSO. Also there’s such a small sample of 3rd year Niñas it’s hard to say how it will behave as we progress
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I have to agree with him. Seems like all we get anymore is a northern wave diving and a Miller B evolution with a CAD component. I know Dec 2018 was like that at last I'm pretty sure last Jan was too. That's the only 2 big storms we've had. Seems like the winters of 16-17 and 17-18 only featured northern stream energy diving. I can't remember the last time a southern wave cruised across from TX to the Carolina's with snow on the northern edge. We've seen rainstorms do it sure. But haven't seen a southern slider be cold enough for snow since what? Jan 2014 or maybe Feb 2014?
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I’m that type of person man, I’m gonna take any storm I can get. Miller B, A, slider, anything. I just know My 7 inches of snow Last winter was my best snow winter since 2014 and my first AN winter since 2018. I mean 3 events 3 weekends in a row is unheard of around here. I do agree though, that evolutions have been on the sloppy side lately (Miller Bs) and progressive northern stream. but it’s because as of late we score with pacific driven stuff (-EPO). It’s like we can’t get a -NAO related Miller A anymore
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I’m that type of person man, I’m gonna take any storm I can get. Miller B, A, slider, anything. I just know My 7 inches of snow Last winter was my best snow winter since 2014 and my first AN winter since 2018. I mean 3 events 3 weekends in a row is unheard of around here. I do agree though, that revolutions have been on the sloppy side lately (Miller Bs) but it’s because as of late we score with pacific driven stuff. It’s like we can’t get a -NAO related Miller A anymore
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Oh absolutely me too. I don't care how I get it. But those southern sliders where we all cash in from TX to NC have been mia. Who knows if they'll return anytime soon.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Oh absolutely me too. I don't care how I get it. But those southern sliders where we all cash in from TX to NC have been mia. Who knows if they'll return anytime soon.
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I feel like we get the looks on modeling often, but as they get closer wavelengths just want to be shortened, and that acts to amplify the pattern favoring more SW to NW oriented stuff. I don’t know anymore
 
CyclonicFury said:
Coldest airmass in December in decades and we won't even get a single flake out of it
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That's probably not that uncommon. This air is very dry. There's energy behind the main show but just not enough moisture to work with. We need more continental air or less push so we can get the gulf involved.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Oh absolutely me too. I don't care how I get it. But those southern sliders where we all cash in from TX to NC have been mia. Who knows if they'll return anytime soon.
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They don't happen very often for sure. We all remember them because they used to happen more commonly. We all remember big, cold late February and big March snows too, which is why we still cling to that time frame as a valid climo period for snow, myself included. But those are all largely products of a bygone era. I'm not talking one-offs or mixy sloppy events. Maybe things will revert back at some point. I hope so. Waiting all winter to get one good storm really sucks. I know not every winter produced back in the day. But less of them do now. I wish I didn't like snow so much.
 
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Rain Cold said:
They don't happen very often for sure. We all remember them because they used to happen more commonly. We all remember big, cold late February and big March snows too, which is why we still cling to that time frame as a valid climo period for snow, myself included. But those are all largely products of a bygone era. I'm not talking one-offs or mixy sloppy events. Maybe things will revert back at some point. I hope so. Waiting all winter to get one good storm really sucks. I know not every winter produced back in the day. But less of them do now. I wish I didn't like snow so much.
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Don't worry CR I decorated my Christmas tree with snowflakes even got a huge snowflake topper maybe the snow gods will reward us ???
 
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Rain Cold said:
They don't happen very often for sure. We all remember them because they used to happen more commonly. We all remember big, cold late February and big March snows too, which is why we still cling to that time frame as a valid climo period for snow, myself included. But those are all largely products of a bygone era. I'm not talking one-offs or mixy sloppy events. Maybe things will revert back at some point. I hope so. Waiting all winter to get one good storm really sucks. I know not every winter produced back in the day. But less of them do now. I wish I didn't like snow so much.
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Yeah it feels like we really only have January now. We have the rare Dec storm like 2018 but Dec has never been great even in the past. Dec has been such a letdown lately due to torching and not so much lack of snow. February on the other hand has been the real disappointment. At least in CLT Feb has always been the snowiest month. Yet not a single decent event has occurred since 2015 or so. So it really feels like it's Jan or bust anymore until Feb actually shows us differently. It sucks to see we're losing the 1st week of Jan to a bad pattern. And honestly probably longer because when that pattern breaks we still have to build the cold air back where the Pacific will blow it off the continent
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Yeah it feels like we really only have January now. We have the rare Dec storm like 2018 but Dec has never been great even in the past. Dec has been such a letdown lately due to torching and not so much lack of snow. February on the other hand has been the real disappointment. At least in CLT Feb has always been the snowiest month. Yet not a single decent event has occurred since 2015 or so. So it really feels like it's Jan or bust anymore until Feb actually shows us differently. It sucks to see we're losing the 1st week of Jan to a bad pattern. And honestly probably longer because when that pattern breaks we still have to build the cold air back where the Pacific will blow it off the continent
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True, but the northern hemisphere should be colder at mid-January than mid-December. It may not take as long to get cold as it did this month. These marginal events over the past few days may make bank in January.
 
weatherfide said:
True, but the northern hemisphere should be colder at mid-January than mid-December. It may not take as long to get cold as it did this month. These marginal events over the past few days may make bank in January.
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If we put up a -EPO and cross polar flow it wouldn't take long. Hopefully it's just a brief relaxation the first week in January. Time will tell
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
If we put up a -EPO and cross polar flow it wouldn't take long. Hopefully it's just a brief relaxation the first week in January. Time will tell
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We have some good things going for us even going into this warm up late next week. The AO looks to stay negative which means the PV won’t be getting wound up and the MJO is moving and should be heading into phase 7 as we end the first week of January… phase 7 in January has had some very good storms.
 
Oconeexman said:
Honestly we have a 3 or 4 week window after Jan 10th ish and after that put a fork in this winter. Sux we waisted this block pattern but thats how we roll these days
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NC had a good March and early April snow a few years ago; maybe 2018? Unfortunately, SC got screwed on that pattern. There was one snow in early March a few years ago for the upstate, but in general, it has become extremely difficult for us to get much accumulation after about Feb 20th.

As hard as it is being a snow lover in the upstate; I am still thankful to be in better shape than the CAE folks; 1st time in 8 years last winter!
 
I wish I had been alive when the SE was glaciated like some of you guys. Glad we are getting a taste of how it used to be this weekend since we set a record for the longest steak below freezing just 5 years ago. The fact that the 1990s was the worst snow decade for many minus that one storm has been forgotten or glossed over is interesting.
 
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