Misc 2022-23 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

[SD]

Special weather statement for orchard Park might catch some decent snow before the game is over

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Not even a single storm thread yet. What an amazing pattern this has been guys!! Boom!!

Honestly I think there should be a thread for next week, because at the very least there will be bitterly cold temps.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Y’all may be about to get your snow game wish with the Bills game here in a minute

 

[Parker]

We are losing bouncycorns model, oh no.

 

[LukeBarrette]

Honestly I think there should be a thread for next week, because at the very least there will be bitterly cold temps.

Solid point

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Y’all may be about to get your snow game wish with the Bills game here in a minute

I sure hope so. It needs to hurry up.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Y’all may be about to get your snow game wish with the Bills game here in a minute

Big streamer headed in

 

[Rain Cold]

Agree. South is south. If it’s “mid” it’s something else.

Reminds me of when I was delivering pizzas for Dominos in college and they dropped the small pizza size so that there was only medium and large remaining. I argued with my manager that you can’t have a medium if you don’t have a small. He told me to take it up with corporate.

Yeah I hear you. They're not fooling anybody with medium, large, and extra large. Everybody knows that's just new age small, medium, and large.

Anyway, midsouth might as well mean Seattle because I ain't getting snow either way.

 

[jrips27]

I sure hope so. It needs to hurry up.

Rooting for OT now haha

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Not even a single storm thread yet. What an amazing pattern this has been guys!! Boom!!

But this record -NAO will do the dirty work, Just give it time to set up... lol

 

[HDGator]

Special weather statement for orchard Park might catch some decent snow before the game is over

THICC band headed in on doppler and dolphins score go-ahead TD.

 

[Deleted member 609]

Is Brick ok?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Is Brick ok?

It is common for models to lose a storm, turn it into a Ohio Valley cutter, then bring it back once we get into 3k NAM range. No need to lose sleep over it. It’s a ?

 

[Deleted member 609]

It is common for models to lose a storm, turn it into a Ohio Valley cutter, then bring it back once we get into 3k NAM range. No need to lose sleep over it. It’s a ?

Sure, but things don't work like they used to. Does that apply here?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

It can’t cut into that arctic high. We are golden. Wave still hasn’t been sampled. Sparse data up in Barrow Alaska. Ice road truckers will be releasing a weather balloon in the morning.

 

[Carolina Jones]

Is there a valid reason why the GFS shows these great winter storms for NC 7 to 10 days away so often only for them to go poof?

 

[Stevo24]

Is there a valid reason why the GFS shows these great winter storms for NC 7 to 10 days away so often only for them to go poof?

I always wonder this too. There has to be a reason why we get head faked so many times.

 

[SD]

Is there a valid reason why the GFS shows these great winter storms for NC 7 to 10 days away so often only for them to go poof?

It's a mediocre model that runs 4 times a day that has a progressive bias which leads to it being too far SE and cold on most systems

 

[Carolina Jones]

It's a mediocre model that runs 4 times a day that has a progressive bias which leads to it being too far SE and cold on most systems

You would think they could fix that.

 

[Deleted member 609]

Is there a valid reason why the GFS shows these great winter storms for NC 7 to 10 days away so often only for them to go poof?

It's like crack, you keep coming back for more. Or the model can't accurately forecast storms a week out. Maybe somewhere between.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I was out once the Bounceycorn model ---- the bed 2 days ago.

 

[Deleted member 609]

You would think they could fix that.

True. Maybe they didn't consider fixing that to your liking.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

4th quarter and still no snow. I give up.

 

[SnowedIn1]

 

[Tarheel1]

We are losing bouncycorns model, oh no.

MMSMDGEX fail

 

[Snowfan]

GFS explaining how it's right about the 23rd system.

 

[jrips27]

First flakes falling in Buffalo ? I really want to see the hammer drop haha

 

[bouncycorn]

MMSMDGEX fail

Outside of the 00z run last night, it has been incredibly consistent.

 

[LukeBarrette]

#Winning

 

[jrips27]

Oh yeah we’re pounding in Buffalo now. Hell yeah

 

[HDGator]

Oh yeah we’re pounding in Buffalo now. Hell yeah

Snow Globe game now!

 

[SD]

Just think buffalo will see more snow in this 4th quarter than many of us this winter

 

[Snowfan]

Just think buffalo will see more snow than many of us this winter

Fixed.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Ripping fatties in Buffalo ?

 

[Ollie Williams]

This graphic probably doesn't mean much to you all, but I plotted the control runs for November 2018 leading up to the infamous December 2018 snowstorm. My ongoing goal would be to analyze storm verifications and help determine signals with regard to pattern recognition. I would like to extend this to December, and the ENS, but the data takes hours, and sometimes days to become available. This data also extends back to 2006, so it would be interesting to see the evolution of the 2014, 2010, and 2011 storms, etc.

 

[NCSNOW]

Im gonna have to root for the 0z Canadian and get some Welfare flakes/frozen. No other options available

 

[LukeBarrette]

Yup looks great

 

[jackendrickwx]

I’ve been out of the loop today how’s the sixth system on day 32 looking?

 

[SD]

View attachment 127382
Yup looks great

Jet extensions will do that to you but it may pay off in January

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]