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Misc 2022-23 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

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If Monday and Tuesday it looks like poop then I'll stick a fork in it. Until then I'll hold out hope. Think this pattern flip is just so dramatic and volatile we can't discount any outcome yet. Yes it does look bleak when the euro, ukie and cmc team up tho
 
It would be highly preferable to score while we gave all this blocking around. After it subsides, since we don't have a split flow, it's going to be much harder to get a snowstorm, particularly with a mediocre PNA ridge.
 
Rain Cold said:
It would be highly preferable to score while we gave all this blocking around. After it subsides, since we don't have a split flow, it's going to be much harder to get a snowstorm, particularly with a mediocre PNA ridge.
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Again, how does a storm cut and run towards Canada if we have the block that the models say we have, in place? I thought there was no way it be could cut into that block that much!


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It may be cold enough to snow but the pipe busting numbers were fantasy land which is not a bad thing if you want snow. The ridge in the west and the low to our north are a lot different now as depicted than they were earlier and not in a good way
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Lol, I thought I read on 2 or 10 times on here last couple of days that the cold was coming regardless of a storm or not we were going to get frigid by Christmas weekend.


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It probably is. We're going to see wild swings. Let's see, we got: energy flying around, models can't see the second storm till the first one gets out of the way, shortwaves not being properly sampled, etc. You know the drill.

Seriously, no model has a handle on the eventual outcome. The general pattern has the right pieces on the board, and it's better to be playing the game when all the players play instead of the starters eiding the pine.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Long range NAM / GFS combo=
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BIG FROSTY said:
Again, how does a storm cut and run towards Canada if we have the block that the models say we have, in place? I thought there was no way it be could cut into that block that much!


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It’s going to cut with the first storm. Great Lakes and Ohio valley going to get hit.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Again, how does a storm cut and run towards Canada if we have the block that the models say we have, in place? I thought there was no way it be could cut into that block that much!


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That is a myth and is just a phrase people who don't know what they're talking about throw out when the model tracks a storm where they don't want it to go. Weather forums are both good and bad.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Again, how does a storm cut and run towards Canada if we have the block that the models say we have, in place? I thought there was no way it be could cut into that block that much!


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A block is not really a block without a 50/50 low to produce confluence with it and push the flow south, as I understand it. Our ridging in Greenland is still not produced any favorable results that I'm aware of yet.

Sorry, im getting weenie annoyed at potentially wasting a great cold spell.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Lol, I thought I read on 2 or 10 times on here last couple of days that the cold was coming regardless of a storm or not we were going to get frigid by Christmas weekend.


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Looks like 22nd and 23rd but hell that's a week out so plenty of time for that to change. Honestly it's useless to even forecast past 5 days anymore. Never was a set in stone deal to that but even more so today. All this govt funding for upgrades and here in the US we have the worst available...so like everything else somebody got rich off this gfs upgrade and did nothing to improve the product(unless of course it scores a coup)
 
Dad of Dad of Jax said:
Son you was still pissin the bed and eatin your boogers in 93 now what is this I hear biggest since 93? Son you must not heard of 63. I remember 63, dang near two foot of snow. You know what I was doin in that? Not no weenieng, I was workin sheltering my cattle knee deep in snow. OOooooh and 66. yes sir 66, -27 degrees in new market, so cold they say half of north alabama lost their peckers!
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Let me know the next time you’re in Alabama and we can figure out who daddy is. ??
 
Unpopular opinion so go ahead and let the clown emojis fly! We've never really had a legit storm threat on the 23rd or 26th. Only op that's even bit under the 200 hr mark is the GFS which is proving its horrible. You need to see more than one model bite and them at least take turns showing something. And don't get me started on ensembles. They aren't good either showing a particular storm 7 days out. We always have good snow means that never come to fruition. Ensembles are great for pattern recognition long range but not for storms more than a week away. A legit storm threat gets inside 120-150 hrs with multiple op models supporting each other and ensemble support. We are not there yet.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Unpopular opinion so go ahead and let the clown emojis fly! We've never really had a legit storm threat on the 23rd or 26th. Only op that's even bit under the 200 hr mark is the GFS which is proving its horrible. You need to see more than one model bite and them at least take turns showing something. And don't get me started on ensembles. They aren't good either showing a particular storm 7 days out. We always have good snow means that never come to fruition. Ensembles are great for pattern recognition long range but not for storms more than a week away. A legit storm threat gets inside 120-150 hrs with multiple op models supporting each other and ensemble support. We are not there yet.
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Nothing clownish about that at all. Honestly it’s like Brad P said in his post earlier today… we have a pattern recognition with a decent signal. In all honesty with the amount of energy showing moving around, I think we’ll have to really get under 120 hours before we can start tracking any individual storm.

Edit: and just to add to that… it wouldn’t suprise me at all with this kind of a pattern with blocking, to see something pop up inside 48-72. I remember a few times that happening back in the 80s and 90s
 
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Rain Cold said:
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