Misc 2022-23 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

[Tarheel1]

6z was a banger! I only get 8 different snows in 15 days! ️??

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Stirring the hot dogs up this morning ?

 

[bigstick10]

LMAO, the GFS since yesterday has gone from 10.7 at Atlanta, to this morning now at 31.1????

 

[Tarheel1]

Stirring the hot dogs up this morning ?

Full on roast at 12z! ?

 

[LickWx]

Love how the trolls disappear when the models start showing cold and snow chances….or maybe they got a timeout? Either way it’s much more peaceful over there in that thread!!

Did it make them all disappear? You are still here !modernweenie

 

[severestorm]

I have a hard time seeing this happening. Have never seen this solution in real life.

 

[severestorm]

Full on roast at 12z! ?

The 0z from last night made the most sense. I can see models sliding back to that solution.

 

[bigstick10]

Did it make them all disappear? You are still here !modernweenie

Man, some of you on here are just so mean, we are all trying to learn from each other, but you see snarky ---- all the time, grow up.

 

[LickWx]

Man, some of you on here are just so mean, we are all trying to learn from each other, but you see snarky ---- all the time, grow up.

Hey now, calm down before you go from big stick to broken stick!

 

[lexxnchloe]

Did it make them all disappear? You are still here !modernweenie

I just want the bitter cold and snow to appear, not seasonably cool.

 

[SD]

Good grief people

 

[DadOfJax]

Hey now, calm down before you go from big stick to broken stick!

Lookout....keyboard warrior making threats!

 

[Usmeagle2005]

Y’all, say it with me… geeze….

 

[Downeastnc]

that could have been a transformer

 

[RBR71]

Good grief people

Took the words right out of my mouth..... it's difficult to read some of the crap on here these days

 

[weatherfide]

Man, some of you on here are just so mean, we are all trying to learn from each other, but you see snarky ---- all the time, grow up.

It's all in how you read the posts. I choose to read them as good-natured ribbing and friendly banter. Then I don't have to throw sticks. It's the internet, remember, it's all make-believe anyway.

 

[weatherfide]

Hey now, calm down before you go from big stick to broken stick!

It's always the stones that do so much damage anyway...

Cloudy and 55 degrees. GFS says 62 for a high, NAM 56. Who wins?

 

[SimeonNC]

Last February has to be one the most painful experiences weather wise for me, I hope we make up for it with this upcoming pattern lol.

 

[wxdaniel]

Could you guys explain to me the difference here?

The (.5 & .2)

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[weatherfide]

Hate to be the downer here, but I'm not liking at all the trends I'm seeing in regard to hurdle #2 that I discussed.


View attachment 125767

View attachment 125768

The 6z GFS just as an example also took another step in that direction at 138 (a borderline usable deterministic forecast hour):

View attachment 125769

Which translated to this trend later:

View attachment 125770

If this energy is going to dig southwest off the Pacific NW instead of congealing with our first system sliding east, it's at best going to delay setting up the favorable west-based -NAO. Not a fan and hope this changes, but once we start getting towards D5 you have to be alarmed at least somewhat at such trends suddenly appearing.

06Z GEFS has the modifying warm up around 12/20 and so did the Euro last night. I would heavily discount the chance for any winter storm in the southeast around that time. Hopefully, Christmas weekend is more favorable.

 

[CaryWx]

Could you guys explain to me the difference here?

The (.5 & .2)

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standard deviation on the mean?

 

[weatherfide]

Yeah this is concerning View attachment 125772

That looks like the trough wants to re-establish itself over the west. If those trends continue, our winter storm tracking will end quickly.

 

[Usmeagle2005]

That looks like the trough wants to re-establish itself over the west. If those trends continue, our winter storm tracking will end quickly.

The cold will be pushed out, probably after January, happens every year. We will cool down to average or a little above (I’ll take it) but models will come back to reality.

 

[BullCityWx]

Good grief people

I've said it before and I'll say it again: I miss the days when you read and shut up unless you had something of value to add

 

[severestorm]

It's all in how you read the posts. I choose to read them as good-natured ribbing and friendly banter. Then I don't have to throw sticks. It's the internet, remember, it's all make-believe anyway.

I know right. I posted a map and said it should have been a southern slider and not a zipper low which means more SE snow and got clowned ? Some people need a Xanax. People can't wish a winter storm to appear. If it were like that, I would have gotten 3 feet of snow by now.

 

[Deleted member 609]

Oh well. There's always next year.

 

[severestorm]

Seriously???

Think Broken meant January, not next season. Probably being facetious. Man folks need a Xanax.

 

[Rain Cold]

12z runs are definitely going to take a big step back/delaying the cold, wintry pattern. You were warned.

 

[LickWx]

As a warm lover it still looks cold as ---- , all I saw was purple turn a slightly less shade of purple . Lmao. Oh no it’s 30 degrees instead of -5. Omg

 

[Tarheel1]

So no cold anymore?? Hug the CMC! ??

 

[severestorm]

As a warm lover it still looks cold as ---- , all I saw was purple turn a slightly less shade of purple . Lmao. Oh no it’s 30 degrees instead of -5. Omg

True. Last winter this time it was in the 60's to 70's. I'll take what we have currently over that mess.

 

[weatherfide]

12z runs are definitely going to take a big step back/delaying the cold, wintry pattern. You were warned.

Yes, Icon is leading the way. The next system looks like rain, too, and a similar track as this week's system, maybe a little farther south and a little colder.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Glad I live in NC lol, we find a way 50% of the time to not Eff up to much

 

[BullCityWx]

Glad I live in NC lol, we find a way 50% of the time to not Eff up to much

I'm just glad I'm north of 40 and 85. If I could justify living about 12-15 miles further due north/northwest, my winters would improve that much.

 

[WXinCanton]

12z runs are definitely going to take a big step back/delaying the cold, wintry pattern. You were warned.

This! And LE will be in disbelief

 

[Tarheel1]

I'm just glad I'm north of 40 and 85. If I could justify living about 12-15 miles further due north/northwest, my winters would improve that much.

Me too

 

[WXinCanton]

When you say north of I40 what do you mean? Like in the area or actually north of it?

 

[weatherfide]

Yes, Icon is leading the way. The next system looks like rain, too, and a similar track as this week's system, maybe a little farther south and a little colder.

 

[Deleted member 609]

Think Broken meant January, not next season. Probably being facetious. Man folks need a Xanax.

2025 at earliest

 

[severestorm]

View attachment 125776

It's often hard for a Colorado Low to produce heavy snow in NC. Need a gulf low ideally.