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Misc 2022-23 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

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I for one would not complain about a foot of snow in Roanoke...Am i right Luke?
 
RAH (suppose this keeps the door open for wintery precip):

Wednesday through Friday: The forecast for the latter half of the
week decreases in confidence as model solutions begin to diverge
beyond 12Z Wed. The sub-tropical ridge will continue to migrate
eastward through the East Coast and offshore Wed/Wed night as the
next system approaches from the west. The biggest weather feature in
the extended will be an upper low over the northern Plains Wed. How
the low evolves and where it tracks are where the decrease in
confidence lies. Generally, it will migrate eastward through the
northern Plains Wed/Wed night, through the upper MS Valley and into
the OH Valley Thu/Thu night. At the surface, expect the cool wedge
airmass to be in place Wed as a cold front rapidly approaches from
the west-southwest. A warm front will lift northward ahead of the
approaching cold front, but if/how quickly it is able to move into
or through central NC will depend on the strength of the wedge and
track of a surface low that develops along the front over the Deep
South on Wed. It is too soon to say with much confidence which
solution, or some combination of the two, will prevail. Regardless
of the type (which for now should be all rain, though some wintry
precip cannot be completely ruled out at onset Wed), the best
chances for precipitation will be between Wed afternoon and Thu
evening. Have trended toward the warmer, slower ECMWF for
temperatures and arrival of precip.
 
So, haven't had a chance to catch up today. Is it going to snow in the SE? Or are we still tracking long range table setters? ?
 
I don't post much, much less dumb 10 day forecasts from TWC, but prolonged below average temps in Seattle is something else.

1670625897351.png
 
Robert West said:
No Happy hour GFS run to sound off one heck of a day for trends, but we are heading in the right direction! Big weekend of figuring out what’s going to happen!
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Willing to get the GEFS will be miles different


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Which is worse the gfs or euro control? Jeez
583d8efb8bd7edb8d5f5ab1379589b59.gif



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2021 all over again . Remember tho GEFS caved to euro in the mid range


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Itryatgolf said:
There is going to be a pretty big monumental bust on one of these models sooner or later. We will soon find out
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Not really… that’s just one day and not indicative of the whole period which was still solidly below average in the east
 
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