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Misc 2022-23 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

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The sheer number of low temps in the 60s and 70s along the gulf coast on the 18z is impressive.
 
The 18z GFS and GEFS showed us the biggest way we could fail. And it’s probably more likely than the best scenario


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Loganelliott99 said:
The 18z GFS and GEFS showed us the biggest way we could fail. And it’s probably more likely than the best scenario


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This evenings runs are dog water. God I hope they're wrong. I'd love to see Brad P take a loss. That doesn't happen much and why it was so discouraging seeing him not bite.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
This evenings runs are dog water. God I hope they're wrong. I'd love to see Brad P take a loss. That doesn't happen much and why it was so discouraging seeing him not bite.
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Well I think he’s learned a lesson from 2021. Doesn’t matter how the great the models look. It’s very easy to destroy a good looking pattern in the southeast. I’ve been talked absolute trash to because I am cautious about the PNA. I don’t want people to get overhyped. The fact the GEFS is pretty much onboard with the gfs is very concerning.


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Loganelliott99 said:
Well I think he’s learned a lesson from 2021. Doesn’t matter how the great the models look. It’s very easy to destroy a good looking pattern in the southeast. I’ve been talked absolute trash to because I am cautious about the PNA. I don’t want people to get overhyped. The fact the GEFS is pretty much onboard with the gfs is very concerning.


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Well, it's not the PNA that's my issue. We can work with a blah pacific. We just must have the TPV well placed under the block. We don't have that we have zilch. It's the Atlantic that really needs to show up, the tpv needs to get pressed down into the NE, not shunted west into Canada.
 
SnowNiner said:
Well, it's not the PNA that's my issue. We can work with a blah pacific. We just must have the TPV well placed under the block. We don't have that we have zilch. It's the Atlantic that really needs to show up, the tpv needs to get pressed down into the NE, not shunted west into Canada.
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Yeah that’s true


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SnowNiner said:
Well, it's not the PNA that's my issue. We can work with a blah pacific. We just must have the TPV well placed under the block. We don't have that we have zilch. It's the Atlantic that really needs to show up, the tpv needs to get pressed down into the NE, not shunted west into Canada.
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I'm not worried about the PNA as much either with that block. 2010 looked similar out west. My concern is just not enough cold air available. That's what Panovich was basically alluding to. He didn't say we wouldn't have a trough on the east coast. He just doesn't believe it'll be cold.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
The west is freaking annoying. Can they ever lose just one time in the freaking winter? So annyoing
38b36ab22ed4bd021949c841229f3025.jpg



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Can you change your user name to the west?
 
mrdaddyman said:
How many times do we have to witness our grand patterns go to pot before we learn to not get excited over 300+ hour model runs, lol? This is the SE. If there is a way to fail, we manage to find it every winter.
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We need some of what the WEST is taking lol


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