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Misc 2022-23 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

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Loganelliott99 said:
2021 all over again . Remember tho GEFS caved to euro in the mid range


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Please explain to me where you're getting this conclusion. No models in the LR look remotely like February 2021. In fact, the 18z GEFS looked better than the 12z.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Please explain to me where you're getting this conclusion. No models in the LR look remotely like February 2021. In fact, the 18z GEFS looked better than the 12z.
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This one lol
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Loganelliott99 said:
This one lol
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But there is a difference. Notice the lower heights over Hawaii. The stronger negative they are, the increased likelihood of a +PNA, because the ridge is pumped east. I've noticed patterns with many head-fakes like February 2021 that had a little signal over Hawaii, to begin with. There's no guarantee that we will have a +PNA, but I think it's foolish to get discouraged about a pattern longer than 10 days out. Take this stuff with a grain of salt.
 
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Ollie Williams said:
But there is a difference. Notice the lower heights over Hawaii. The stronger negative they are, the increased likelihood of a +PNA, because the ridge is pumped east. I've noticed that patterns with many heads are fake like February 2021 had a little signal over Hawaii, to begin with. There's no guarantee that we will have a +PNA, but I think it's foolish to get discouraged about a pattern longer than 10 days out. Take this stuff with a grain of salt.
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I don’t know why y’all keep responding?? If it snowed balls deep to him, he’d complain about his balls being cold and it never snows! ? ?
 
I mean they somewhat agree lol. It would really suck to have another warm Christmas
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NAM, you crayDC30D7D0-265F-45FA-8C5C-4D977D5D40DC.png
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Well, I hope it's wrong like any 300 hr map. But that's Cohen's thoughts exactly in that map. He's wrong a lot like everybody so take it for what it's worth.

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He’s a clown! I’d be way more concerned if he was calling for a very cold East!
 
I don't know. I see it cooling down end of December, but I don't see it going to get cold enough for a winter storm in mby, save some icy wedgey shenanigans maybe. I really think we need the trough to come east imo for a great pattern. Central conus looks to benefit the most next few weeks I think.
 
SnowNiner said:
I don't know. I see it cooling down end of December, but I don't see it going to get cold enough for a winter storm in mby, save some icy wedgey shenanigans maybe. I really think we need the trough to come east imo for a great pattern. Central conus looks to benefit the most next few weeks I think.
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I’m sorry but I disagree, both ensembles, even the warmer GEFS has mean highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s/upper 20s already for your area, that’s a pretty cold pattern for SE standards, if it was in the 50s everyday I’d agree, but mid 40s/upper 20s and low 30s is dominating on smoothed out means, that’s pretty cold by NC standards 0B67BA75-BA3F-4AFD-A7FE-7BEEA56E24F2.pngB0E0C60C-2808-4309-9400-F4DEBA5507F5.png4E160F2F-395D-4981-BB1E-5CDE4A2CD78D.png4AA57264-B36C-4E98-84E7-A874A8D9FB4F.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I’m sorry but I disagree, both ensembles, even the warmer GEFS has mean highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s/upper 20s already for your area, that’s a pretty cold pattern for SE standards, if it was in the 50s everyday I’d agree, but mid 40s/upper 20s and low 30s is dominating on smoothed out means, that’s pretty cold by NC standards View attachment 125373View attachment 125374View attachment 125375View attachment 125376
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Thanks man, and thank you for using Statesville as my area, reminded me I'm not in CLT anymore! lol. Yeah I get it, it can produce with 20s/40s. but when you start throwing in systems in and WAA, a cool pattern usually isn't enough in my anecdotal experience. And with the trough in the west/midwest I envision many of our systems trying to go to our west/ trying to cut before being shunted by the block.

With the trough to the east I just like the door it opens for bringing more cold and keeping the storm digging to the south as much as possible. To me that's a great pattern, the missing element. But yeah, it certainly can Miller B us. Just a whiney preference I guess.
 
BullCityWx said:
How does one let the OP GFS derail excitement over what’s coming? Like seriously.
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Years of great LR pattern mirages, I think. It's like weather model PTSD. But I don't disagree with your premise.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Heat bots taking over the main thread. We’re in desperate need of a -30 departure from normal 12z weenie run right now
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That wouldn't be good enough. We could have such negative anomalies we would break the color scale on tidbits and people would still complain its too warm or dry. You have to have the snow in the meta verse to make people happy now
 
Rain Cold said:
Years of great LR pattern mirages, I think. It's like weather model PTSD. But I don't disagree with your premise.
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February 2021 removed my soul from my body. Run after run of historic cold that never happened, then just to watch places like Dallas and Houston get days and days of below freezing weather, it would have been nice. I'm not the one really hoping for that, but a December that is only +2 or +3F would be a success at this point.
 
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