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Misc 2022-23 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

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18z looks awesome. Significant snowstorm for Arizona while I'm out there.

Flakes in Tucson, 3" at my family's place in Nogales
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One trend I’m noticing with the GFS/GEFS is that it’s getting warmer and warmer each run through middle month. They are both fairly consistent with each other. I think this is onto something. If so, I do not see anyone in the southeast receiving a below normal December. The west is in prime spot to see a cold and wintry weather no matter what in December. East has a chance to flip the pattern but it seems much more unlikely IMO.


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One trend I’m noticing with the GFS/GEFS is that it’s getting warmer and warmer each run through middle month. They are both fairly consistent with each other. I think this is onto something. If so, I do not see anyone in the southeast receiving a below normal December. The west is in prime spot to see a cold and wintry weather no matter what in December. East has a chance to flip the pattern but it seems much more unlikely IMO.


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how so?
 

Well if a pattern change occurs around the 20th, I find it very difficult for the east to receive a below average December. November seemed quite chilly to me but it was over 3 degrees above normal.


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