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Misc 2022-23 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

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Unpopular opinion so go ahead and let the clown emojis fly! We've never really had a legit storm threat on the 23rd or 26th. Only op that's even bit under the 200 hr mark is the GFS which is proving its horrible. You need to see more than one model bite and them at least take turns showing something. And don't get me started on ensembles. They aren't good either showing a particular storm 7 days out. We always have good snow means that never come to fruition. Ensembles are great for pattern recognition long range but not for storms more than a week away. A legit storm threat gets inside 120-150 hrs with multiple op models supporting each other and ensemble support. We are not there yet.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Unpopular opinion so go ahead and let the clown emojis fly! We've never really had a legit storm threat on the 23rd or 26th. Only op that's even bit under the 200 hr mark is the GFS which is proving its horrible. You need to see more than one model bite and them at least take turns showing something. And don't get me started on ensembles. They aren't good either showing a particular storm 7 days out. We always have good snow means that never come to fruition. Ensembles are great for pattern recognition long range but not for storms more than a week away. A legit storm threat gets inside 120-150 hrs with multiple op models supporting each other and ensemble support. We are not there yet.
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Nothing clownish about that at all. Honestly it’s like Brad P said in his post earlier today… we have a pattern recognition with a decent signal. In all honesty with the amount of energy showing moving around, I think we’ll have to really get under 120 hours before we can start tracking any individual storm.

Edit: and just to add to that… it wouldn’t suprise me at all with this kind of a pattern with blocking, to see something pop up inside 48-72. I remember a few times that happening back in the 80s and 90s
 
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Rain Cold said:
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