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Misc 2021 Spring/Summer Whamby Thread

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Current outflow prior to landfall often gives you clues to what’s its gonna do without looking at models. And how the outflow is pointed. Safe calls can be made for northwest of New Orleans and north Georgia etc. However, everything is pointed ENE which will include Florida, Georgia/SC state line to coastal areas for severe weather. Alabama and Mississippi too but weighted S/E sections. Pink line is uncertainty and need to watch how this system evolves for the east coast (OBX north). 6F05C30A-FA47-49F9-BC82-520260F05298.jpeg
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Current outflow prior to landfall often gives you clues to what’s its gonna do without looking at models. And how the outflow is pointed. Safe calls can be made for northwest of New Orleans and north Georgia etc. However, everything is pointed ENE which will include Florida, Georgia/SC state line to coastal areas for severe weather. Alabama and Mississippi too but weighted S/E sections. Pink line is uncertainty and need to watch how this system evolves for the east coast (OBX north). View attachment 85491
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What if polar vortex splits?
 
Not sure if I agree with Potential Tropical Cyclone in terms of communication with the public. Why not just call it Cyclone? They don’t care if it’s tropical or sub or extra trop. And it’s no longer a potential when it’s gonna impact them! Surely I’m not the only one who sees this mess @Webberweather53
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Not sure if I agree with Potential Tropical Cyclone in terms of communication with the public. Why not just call it Cyclone? They don’t care if it’s tropical or sub or extra trop. And it’s no longer a potential when it’s gonna impact them! Surely I’m not the only one who sees this mess @Webberweather53
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Is that little signature at the bottom about your thought seeing your own written by you or something the mods forced on there lol?
 
Is it just me or is the long range still warming up when we get closer ? The last couple days seem to be an example if such, last weekend as well, and now start of this coming week looks warmer on my 10 day than it has .
 
Lickwx said:
Is it just me or is the long range still warming up when we get closer ? The last couple days seem to be an example if such, last weekend as well, and now start of this coming week looks warmer on my 10 day than it has .
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Not really noticing that here. In fact earlier this week I was supposed to be in the mid to upper 90s today and tomorrow, and I ended up with a high of 91 today and forecast of 92 tomorrow that I think might be a bit too warm because it looks like clouds are gonna roll in sooner. My low temperatures did get a few degrees cooler than earlier forecasted the last couple mornings… I bottomed out at 55 the last two mornings. Now it just looks like we’re going into a pattern that will have temperatures close to average for the most part.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Not sure if I agree with Potential Tropical Cyclone in terms of communication with the public. Why not just call it Cyclone? They don’t care if it’s tropical or sub or extra trop. And it’s no longer a potential when it’s gonna impact them! Surely I’m not the only one who sees this mess @Webberweather53
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It's so late now that changing the designation would make things very confusing for local and regional emergency managers communication-wise.
 
Like I said. It will be stronger post landfall away from New Orleans. Not shocked at all with the TS declaration. My final call map will stay no changes. Absolutely absurd. I will be in contact with local emergency management teams.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Like I said. It will be stronger post landfall away from New Orleans. Not shocked at all with the TS declaration. My final call map will stay no changes. Absolutely absurd. I will be in contact with local emergency management teams.
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They don't care what you say. Hahaha
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Obviously the mods keep posting the NAM which is a non-tropical model versus cams and other guidance local officials are using. It’s gonna cause someone to get hurt!!!!
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I thought the system would be south of Charlestown? Given that the nam shifted north at 12z and the system is likely to follow just south of the better band of fgen I'd say the non tropical model is doing better than the good for ----
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Can someone refresh my memory. Does the GFS still have a bias of over developing lows and spinning them into full blown storms too frequently
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I think they corrected a lot of the convective feedback issues of the old model with the upgrade which in theory should stop randocanes
 
SD said:
I think they corrected a lot of the convective feedback issues of the old model with the upgrade which in theory should stop randocanes
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Gotcha. Noticed past couple runs have been spinning up a low in The MDR that winds up pretty quick. Seems awfully early for that given SSTs down there
 
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