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Tropical 2021 hurricane season thread

Not much of a lull. Ida and Julian are next

two_atl_5d0 (3).png

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the western
Caribbean Sea late this week. Environmental conditions are expected
to be favorable for gradual development of this system thereafter
while it moves west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
Brent said:
Not much of a lull. Ida and Julian are next

View attachment 88967

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the western
Caribbean Sea late this week. Environmental conditions are expected
to be favorable for gradual development of this system thereafter
while it moves west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Click to expand...
GFS last night! ?88CC449E-68B3-4204-9E25-21E8A9549D44.pngECD22FAA-7E29-4150-B57E-5BE99E1978E6.png
 
Last week, the Nino 3.4 anomaly cooled from -0.4 C to -0.9 C. That’s bad news if one doesn’t want an active 2nd half of hurricane season and the related increased threat to the SE US.
 
A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected
to form a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea by late week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast
to become favorable for gradual development while the system moves
west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
 
GaWx said:
12Z Euro very unreliable long range hits TX.
Click to expand...
slp8.png
 
Cadi40 said:
I wonder how this current/upcoming steering pattern will affect the SE coast during peak season. Hopefully storms will have enough wiggle room to escape quietly out to sea.
Click to expand...
It looks like we’re setting up the pattern the Webb and others have been talking about evolving all summer. A pattern that blocks off the OTS path and steers storms into the SE coast.
 
SD said:
I'm a little surprised nhc hasn't mentioned the area east of the Bahamas
Click to expand...
Sometimes I think they mention invest areas based off of models developing it or not, which is poor meteorology. That area has some turning and seems like can't 100% rule it out
 
12z icon continues the TEXAS sneak attack .. this looked for sure a Mexico threat a couple days ago .. suddenly we watch as the sneak attack is underway
 
The GFS has shifted into Texas now(trending towards the Euro? Lol) so pretty good agreement that whatever comes out of the Caribbean would threaten

And after what Grace did I definitely wouldnt rule out a hurricane

Also should be noted there are hints the steering will collapse near landfall so yeah that's another can of worms

CMC also into Texas nowgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_24.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_27.png
 
Last edited:
Should a thread be started for the tropical wave in the eastern Carribean? The models have been really noisy about that system.
 
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