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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

ILMRoss said:
when i was in middle school i had a big crush on a girl and on a bus ride back from a field trip i asked her out and she said no, and she gave me a kiss on the check i guess for compensation. anyway that's what tracking these convective snows feel like knowing the kind of trough we're wasting
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Well sounds like you dodged a bullet if she was kissing your checks . She was a gold digger
 
Rain Cold said:
For me, it's just frustrating that we squandered a golden opportunity here. We're hoping to get under a band of snow showers and pick up a dusting or inch or two, when we were seriously a couple of hours and a hundred miles away from probably widespread foot+ totals.
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This. All of this. Also the fact that last night guidance at 00z appeared to be moving in the same general direction only to once again reverse course. I feel like something has changed in NWP land the past couple years - trends that usually hold don’t hold, and guidance just waffles all over the place right on up until verification. Also - ensembles suck (especially GEFS) and are basically no better than low res deterministic models. There, I said it.
 
Rain Cold said:
For me, it's just frustrating that we squandered a golden opportunity here. We're hoping to get under a band of snow showers and pick up a dusting or inch or two, when we were seriously a couple of hours and a hundred miles away from probably widespread foot+ totals.
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This was a rough one. The RGEM had multiple runs showing a nice event, even as late as this morning.


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Myfrotho704_ said:
Weather pattern is a weenie dream come true, snow, snow, snow, possible severe, maybe wintry next weekend ? Epic
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Eh, well, kinda? Nice modest event 2 weeks ago (2 inch snow/2 inch sleet). That's all I should expect in a winter. I'm still waiting for another one though. Wouldn't call it epic. I'd go a bit better than average so far. If I can score another 4 inch event, ok epic it is but not yet.
 
Rain Cold said:
For me, it's just frustrating that we squandered a golden opportunity here. We're hoping to get under a band of snow showers and pick up a dusting or inch or two, when we were seriously a couple of hours and a hundred miles away from probably widespread foot+ totals.
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I don't see it as squandered because it was predetermined to not be a huge snow. The foot plus snows were model teases and nothing else. If the models were perfect, they never would have shown the huge snow in NC on any run.
But the fact that models are so imperfect is what makes the forecasting discussions so interesting. If they were perfect, there wouldn't be a reason to debate forecasts.
 
GaWx said:
I don't see it as squandered because it was predetermined to not be a huge snow. The foot plus snows were model teases and nothing else. If the models were perfect, they never would have shown the huge snow in NC on any run.
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Cool
 
Ollie Williams said:
I'm basically unphased by this event. I've gotten so many 1-2 inches so far this month that I'm just waiting to see what happens.
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I got snookered. I never went all in on the phase bomb, but yesterday the mesolow pulled me in. Now that's casually drifted east. I guess I'm just disappointed in myself. Lol.
 
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