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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

CyclonicFury said:
You know things have been bad here in recent years when we try to act like a 2-3 inch total is a good winter.
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Thank you. It was a nice event to have, it made me excited about winter again, and gave me validation snow does indeed cover grass but good grief it ain't special. If we had 6/8/10 yeah I'd say this was a good winter
 
KyloG said:
Here is RDU's running 20yr snowfall average....once 2004 rolls off in a couple of years it will drop to 3.4". Dropping quicker than Bitcoin.

1980: 8.1
1990: 8.0
2000: 6.9
2010: 5.9
2020: 5.0
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God that’s bad. We need the 2020s to deliver. I think the 1990s were pretty bad snow wise, so there’s a solid chance our 2001-2030 average will be higher, at least. Except January 2000 will also be coming off the board…
 
SD said:
Thank you. It was a nice event to have, it made me excited about winter again, and gave me validation snow does indeed cover grass but good grief it ain't special. If we had 6/8/10 yeah I'd say this was a good winter
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i also have a much smaller frame of reference, as have only been hardcore following wx about 3 years now. + come from worse snow climo
 
SD said:
Probably what's best for you. I can't erase 96, 00. 02, 04, 09 from my memory
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I first started really getting into this stuff in the winter of 2008-2009, and in the first couple years I had January 2009, March 2009, December 2009, January 2010, February 2010, March 2010, and then December to Remember 2010. Then after a couple bad winters, 2013-2014 delivered and 2015 had a couple events in February, including a big dog at the end of the month. Now we can’t buy a good storm..
 
jackendrickwx said:
yeah but those are the outliers. no reason to expect anything close to that
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I don't think they are statistically that much of an outlier here. I don't think you should get it yearly but we haven't had a truly large event in a long time imby. Obviously rdu did well in 17/18
 
SD said:
I don't think they are statistically that much of an outlier here. I don't think you should get it yearly but we haven't had a truly large event in a long time imby. Obviously rdu did well in 17/18
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Exactly. This period is similar to the mid-2000s. It’s been a long time since we’ve had a big event, and that is actually unusual. Statistically, RDU averages an 8” storm something like once every right winters. Currently, it’s been 20 years since the last one, I believe (January 2002).
 
SD said:
I don't think they are statistically that much of an outlier here. I don't think you should get it yearly but we haven't had a truly large event in a long time imby. Obviously rdu did well in 17/18
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Steep drop off from RDU to your backyard . I’d wager you average 3 inches to rdus 5. RDU is really hard to compare to when it’s the most NW spot of the county essentially .
 
superjames1992 said:
I know, right? Geez, low expectations are infecting some here. My expectations may be too high, but no way some 2-3” storm is going to make me satisfied with winter. I live in North Carolina, not South Georgia. ?
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Raleigh doesn't have the ? power we have out here. You guys need to step it up.
 
I’ll admit, let myself get too high expectations for this event earlier in the week, and now I’m a bit Meh on it. Started salivating at thought of a coastal bomb near Hatteras cranking up and crashing the column. RAH mentioned cyclogenesis in a few afds. My own fault though. I always have higher expectations when I see snow on the ground too, so its partly psychological.
 
Getting .6 of an inch of precipitation with the column below freezing really shouldn't be such a hard thing, even down here. But it has become almost an annual impossibility, with seemingly no combinations of atmospheric elements to make that happen. Cold chasing moisture, no problem. Miller B slopfest, no problem. Miller A and big snow over the Gulf Stream, no problem. ULL destroy the western piedmont, no problem. Late bloomer Mid-Atlantic crush job, no problem. Year after year.
 
Rain Cold said:
Getting .6 of an inch of precipitation with the column below freezing really shouldn't be such a hard thing, even down here. But it has become almost an annual impossibility, with seemingly no combinations of atmospheric elements to make that happen. Cold chasing moisture, no problem. Miller B slopfest, no problem. Miller A and big snow over the Gulf Stream, no problem. ULL destroy the western piedmont, no problem. Late bloomer Mid-Atlantic crush job, no problem. Year after year.
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Things don’t work like they used to . Got to have the good winters go away before they come back
 
Lickwx said:
Steep drop off from RDU to your backyard . I’d wager you average 3 inches to rdus 5. RDU is really hard to compare to when it’s the most NWS spot of the county essentially .
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In the recent past 1-2 decades yeah I bet the drop off is insane but I bet over the last 100-120 years it's not as dramatic. The lack of a -nao the last 7 years is killing SE wake
 
superjames1992 said:
Exactly. This period is similar to the mid-2000s. It’s been a long time since we’ve had a big event, and that is actually unusual. Statistically, RDU averages an 8” storm something like once every right winters. Currently, it’s been 20 years since the last one, I believe (January 2002).
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I'm honestly surprised RDU hasn't gone an entire winter without measurable snow during this period. We easily could have in 2019-20 or 2020-21. Even 2018-19 had nothing here after the early December winter storm.
 
This storm is just annoying at this point because we really don't have this much potential very often, and it feels completely wasted. This really was closer than the records will end up showing. For us on the wrong side of town this will go down in my mind as a much closer miss than all those storms that we rain at 33 while points NW get blasted. Just need Brick in here saying -NAO's don't matter to top it off.
 
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