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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

Brent said:
Oh this thread is gonna be epic tomorrow with these trends
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Wishcasting today and favorite winter storm fail phrases, at level 10 already today! It’s gonna be lit up in the whamby today! Fav phrase is: low can’t run into a wedge that strong! ??
But they do
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
We’re not escaping a ice storm man, those sfc temps are cold
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I don't know, if the GFS is to be believed we're right on the precipice of turning into a cold cold rain in CLT. If this amps further west and runs the apps, makes a crap transfer I wouldn't rule out rain for CLT at this point. But it's the GFS I know but seems to have been leading the way so far. Let's see what today brings.

2 days ago were great runs! Yesterday was crap. Maybe today will be good again.

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Snownut said:
Nope those areas will be Snow just watch

Sent from my SM-A526U using Tapatalk
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If this storm happened tomorrow, as currently modeled, GSP along and S of 85, would get a dusting at best and 2” of sleet. TR might squeeze out 2-5” of snow
 
KyloG said:
I said that the other day too...there's a reason we haven't seen an 8"+ event in 20 years. We need weak strung out messes that give us .3" of precip so we can get 2-3" of snow. That's our cap...anything over that these systems just jump NW.
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Yeah without a -nao we have to have either a eastward displaced western ridge, a strong vortex in SE Can, or a late phase. Closing the system off over the Arklatex/midwest isn't going to work. I'm kind of surprised we have been able to get this much amplification in this pattern we have to be honest. It's really another stroke or bad luck speed the wave up 24 hours and it's likely a different game
 
At this point,I hope the NW/warming trends continue on todays model runs. Unless the Euro/Ukmet turns out to be correct,the 850s will be too warm to even support a sleet event. It's ether a miserable mid 30s cold rain or a damaning ice storm. I don't want ether. To think just 36 hours ago,we were tracking a potentially a huge snowstorm for a large portion of the board . Now a lot of us will ether have to settle for sleet,ice or even rain.
 
SD said:
Yeah without a -nao we have to have either a eastward displaced western ridge, a strong vortex in SE Can, or a late phase. Closing the system off over the Arklatex/midwest isn't going to work. I'm kind of surprised we have been able to get this much amplification in this pattern we have to be honest. It's really another stroke or bad luck speed the wave up 24 hours and it's likely a different game
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It's stunning this setup is going to result in largely rain for me, you and RainCold. Western NC to GSO should hopefully get a large winter storm.

When you miss with this setup it really sucks. But we shouldn't worry...I am sure we will screw up a couple of more before this winter is over.

That low dropping into Hudson Bay...?

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-2312800.png
 
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