• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

smast16 said:
We hug what ever model gives us our desired outcome, and then we rationalize to others.

Right?
Click to expand...
Something like that. Tbf if we didn’t do that we would lose a lot of activity just waiting on models to all agree. Although, I suppose they aren’t as drastically diff as we think they are rn
 
For Upstate (west of I26) and NGA peeps this pattern has been flat awful. I am not smart enough to know why the Southern stream has been so weak and the gulf closed for action but this repeating late bloomer coast pattern has been torture. While CLT and GSO East may not have had "a big dog" many have seen multiple small events (weekly) while Upstate/NGA and West have been blanked every time. Of course the one time we got precip, last week, (I had over 3 inches), it was all rain. I never thought I would say it but... I'm ready to see some Miller B's again.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
For Upstate (west of I26) and NGA peeps this pattern has been flat awful. I am not smart enough to know why the Southern stream has been so weak and the gulf closed for action but this repeating late bloomer coast pattern has been torture. While CLT and GSO East may not have had "a big dog" many have seen multiple small events (weekly) while Upstate/NGA and West have been blanked every time. Of course the one time we got precip, last week, (I had over 3 inches), it was all rain. I never thought I would say it but... I'm ready to see some Miller B's again.
Click to expand...

Do you count GSP/Greer as “Upstate” west of I-26? They literally had a “big dog” and their biggest snow in 11 years!
 
Yeah feels pretty good outside, make sure you warm weenies take pics of grilling, while sauntering through the warm meadows, while laying preemergent or whatever your dying for heat waves for. One pic now, another in September October when you've been doing it for 8 months straight.
 
GaWx said:
Do you count GSP/Greer as “Upstate” west of I-26? They literally had a “big dog” and their biggest snow in 11 years!
Click to expand...
I hear you but that was literally the only time many have seen snow fall this year. Then you have CLT and GSO that have seen it now 4-6 times, even CAE to FLO have seen it twice. My point is, this pattern the past few weeks has been like Groundhog day. We got a good snow in Mid Jan, bigger than our average, but one snow doesn't make a whole season, IMO.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
For Upstate (west of I26) and NGA peeps this pattern has been flat awful. I am not smart enough to know why the Southern stream has been so weak and the gulf closed for action but this repeating late bloomer coast pattern has been torture. While CLT and GSO East may not have had "a big dog" many have seen multiple small events (weekly) while Upstate/NGA and West have been blanked every time. Of course the one time we got precip, last week, (I had over 3 inches), it was all rain. I never thought I would say it but... I'm ready to see some Miller B's again.
Click to expand...

That rain was plain annoying. I really want a dry warm month.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I know it didn't snow while I was out in Tahoe last week, but the 4-6 Feet they got a month+ ago was largely still on the ground. (especially in the shaded areas) It just amazes me that all that snow/compacted ice was still around. Doesn't hurt to be at a base of 6500 feet either. lol
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
For Upstate (west of I26) and NGA peeps this pattern has been flat awful. I am not smart enough to know why the Southern stream has been so weak and the gulf closed for action but this repeating late bloomer coast pattern has been torture. While CLT and GSO East may not have had "a big dog" many have seen multiple small events (weekly) while Upstate/NGA and West have been blanked every time. Of course the one time we got precip, last week, (I had over 3 inches), it was all rain. I never thought I would say it but... I'm ready to see some Miller B's again.
Click to expand...
For the last 30 years 6-8 inches for the season has been the ceiling in the upstate. We've already reached the magic number. I was hoping as active as the pattern was we could break the curse of not being able to reach double digits. But hope in that is quickly fading. Seems fairly normal here to get either a few small events or a one and done big dog. Too bad we can't ever get a big dog and then a few light events. But that's upstate climo anymore. Dec 2018 was great and then not even another sleet pellet. I guess it comes down to personal preference. I'd rather have a big dog over 3 small events that melt in a day. But everyone is different
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
I hear you but that was literally the only time many have seen snow fall this year. Then you have CLT and GSO that have seen it now 4-6 times, even CAE to FLO have seen it twice. My point is, this pattern the past few weeks has been like Groundhog day. We got a good snow in Mid Jan, bigger than our average, but one snow doesn't make a whole season, IMO.
Click to expand...
I've seen a sleet fest from first storm maybe 3". Second storm was a surprise especially for Cabarrus County. Had 2.9-3" of beautiful fluffy snow. Third event underperformed with barely a dusting. Mondays event I slept through for the most part.
So it may seem like CLT has been rockin for weeks.. but not so much imo.
 
Man, I miss the good ole days and having the southern stream juiced, with a strong vort breaking out snow in Texas and just heading east. Why can't we get that anymore? The split flow STJ has been a huge disappointment even in this colder pattern.

Oh well, I got a front end snow thump with a sleetfest event a month ago so I'll roll with that. Much better than the last 3 years.
 
SnowNiner said:
Man, I miss the good ole days and having the southern stream juiced, with a strong vort breaking out snow in Texas and just heading east. Why can't we get that anymore? The split flow STJ has been a huge disappointment even in this colder pattern.

Oh well, I got a front end snow thump with a sleetfest event a month ago so I'll roll with that. Much better than the last 3 years.
Click to expand...

El Niño would help a lot with the STJ vs La Niña along with colder winter overall especially if weak to moderate. Hopefully next winter! Two years of La Niña is more than enough.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
El Niño would help a lot with the STJ vs La Niña along with colder winter overall especially if weak to moderate. Hopefully next winter!
Click to expand...

Would love a Moderate nino next year. And one that acted like one, as opposed to last year. lol.
 
SnowNiner said:
Man, I miss the good ole days and having the southern stream juiced, with a strong vort breaking out snow in Texas and just heading east. Why can't we get that anymore? The split flow STJ has been a huge disappointment even in this colder pattern.

Oh well, I got a front end snow thump with a sleetfest event a month ago so I'll roll with that. Much better than the last 3 years.
Click to expand...
Next winter is probably going to fall into the weak nino range. We have to hope that we can get the mjo into the cold phases though WEN charged up STJ+bad mjo=yikes
 
SD said:
Next winter is probably going to fall into the weak nino range. We have to hope that we can get the mjo into the cold phases though WEN charged up STJ+bad mjo=yikes
Click to expand...

I’d love for a weak to moderate El Niño as despite the unusual 2018-9 they have historically averaged coldest by a good margin in the SE US. Some great weak to low end moderate El Niño winters: 1884-5, 1885-6, 1904-5, 1911-12, 1923-4, 1939-40, 1941-2, 1963-4, 1968-9, 1969-70, 1976-7, 1977-8, 1979-80.
 
GaWx said:
I’d love for a weak to moderate El Niño as despite the unusual 2018-9 they have historically averaged coldest by a good margin in the SE US. Some great weak to low end moderate El Niño winters: 1884-5, 1885-6, 1904-5, 1911-12, 1923-4, 1939-40, 1941-2, 1963-4, 1968-9, 1969-70, 1976-7, 1977-8.
Click to expand...
Yeah I'm reasonably optimistic about next winter. I think we have seen over the past few winters that the global SST structure will find us the opportunity at significant ridging in the west US or north pac and I don't see a lot that's going to change that configuration at this time. We may though see more SER appear during the winter than is typical of a nino but every day from 11/1-4/1 can't be cold anyway
 
Problem is this thing is rather paltry and a quick mover. Maybe some token flakes and possible advisory level snow for southeast VA and up into the Delmarva.

Afterwards things get really interesting for rain lovers.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
We are so close to point where I can eliminate this forum from my life for 8 months. Maybe 2 or 3 more runs.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Broken024 said:
View attachment 113204
Click to expand...
brad-brad-himym.gif
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top