Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

[weatherfide]

Sailing through prime climo for winter weather with a snow mean of less than .5" over the next 10 days is really pathetic. Sticking with my winter cancel call back in December. It's looking real good right now.

Just for Atlanta and south, though!

 

[NoSnowATL]

And another one

 

[Avalanche]

Y’all seen brick lately ?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.newsobserver.com/news/local/crime/article257109997.html

Dude, cmon man, you know this aint Brick. He would've got it, lost it, and refound it for verification time.

 

[superjames1992]

6z was meh. It will not snow at 50°.


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Rates will overcome all.

 

[superjames1992]

I’ve kind of given up on seeing a major winter storm IMBY ever again (I missed a few major ones while I was away living in FL). I haven’t seen one in seven years despite hours of model watching. It’s kind of depressing. This hobby isn’t for the faint of heart. We can’t even get consistent fantasy storms on the LR models anymore.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I’ve kind of given up on seeing a major winter storm IMBY ever again (I missed a few major ones while I was away living in FL). I haven’t seen one in seven years despite hours of model watching. It’s kind of depressing. This hobby isn’t for the faint of heart. We can’t even get consistent fantasy storms on the LR models anymore.

Can’t even get a snow mean past 1 inch for 2 runs in a row

 

[NoSnowATL]

We should go ask Nashville about snow means. They are never right. We could add Boston as well.

 

[smast16]

Delayed retraction of the pacific jet so slowed down retrogression process

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Think we just stay the course here in the medium-extended range (Jan 15-30). GEFS is probably too amplified out west and EPS not amplified enough. GEFS is more of a -EPO pattern with episodic cold highs dropping down (colder, better chances farther south and/or Miller B, as has been stated), while EPS is more of a split flow / weak +PNA look (not as cold, but could have some good chances if timing is there). I still think a quick retraction of the jet back to the WPac (back to -PNA) is the least likely scenario. AAM charts are trending up, so, more evidence of westerly momentum getting charged into the Pac jet and keeping it from doing a quick retreat. GEFS is probably overdone on the -NAO, but still think we may have an opportunity there. AAM charts from @MattHugo81 on Twitter

Keeping it simple, on a scale of 1 to 5 with 3 being avg and 5 being excellent, I'd view the 2nd half of Jan as a 4 (better than average).

People we love … GRIT

 

[SimeonNC]

Man after tracking that January 2-4 storm system, I'm impatient. I wanna get in on tracking another one asap lol.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Man after tracking that January 2-4 storm system, I'm impatient. I wanna get in on tracking another one asap lol.

Yeah I have never been this impatient before, considering we both haven’t seen a legit winter (3+ inches of snow) storm since 2018 when our average is 3-4 inches of snow per winter

 

[Brent]

Man after tracking that January 2-4 storm system, I'm impatient. I wanna get in on tracking another one asap lol.

It's funny here because December was so warm I honestly wasn't concerned about winter but yeah those flurries on Saturday my mood has totally changed ???

And I know I was in Texas for February but we have a better snow climo up here

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I can feel it in my bones, a weenie 18z GFS run

 

[packfan98]

I can feel it in my bones, a weenie 18z GFS run

I keep feeling like there will be a run where we get two good SE hits. We almost had that yesterday.

 

[Broken024]

I can feel it in my bones, a weenie 18z GFS run

Nicky, that you?

 

[jackendrickwx]

I can feel it in my bones, a weenie 18z GFS run

I feel it too not even kidding I was thinking this earlier

 

[superjames1992]

Assuming we don’t bust high on our low, which we probably will, tomorrow morning RDU should post the coldest low temperature in a couple years or so. Which is sad and a demonstration of how little true cold we’ve had recently. Our lowest temperature last winter was a pathetic 22…it’s like I never moved away from Florida.

 

[WeatherNC]

I’ve kind of given up on seeing a major winter storm IMBY ever again (I missed a few major ones while I was away living in FL). I haven’t seen one in seven years despite hours of model watching. It’s kind of depressing. This hobby isn’t for the faint of heart. We can’t even get consistent fantasy storms on the LR models anymore.

I came to this understanding after we moved to Greenville in 2006, never looked back. Granted, 6” IMBY is better than 18” in theirs, but to see heavy snow I have to travel and the Mid-Atlantic and even SE NE do tease out benchmarks.

I grew up on the space coast by the way, 1980-2000

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I can feel it in my bones, a weenie 18z GFS run

Threat level 1/6

 

[Ollie Williams]

18z GFS going to show a big fantasy storm here in a bit. Buckle up.

It's always good when you seem confident! Hopefully, you didn't jinx us.