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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

wxdaniel said:
I like how one poster on the storm thread is like “this storm is over per GEFS” When in fact it still looks good for many on here. I thought these post are suppose to be on this thread? We talk about “noise” on models but dang there’s noise in the storm thread.


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Certainly doesn't look like the board wide winter event many were talking about yesterday. Probably less than half the board sees significant snow/ice.
 
Yikes fellas, we all wanted the GFS to throw a bone towards the other models but now the GEFS, and UKMET giving a nod to the GFS. ICON playing ball but... it's the ICON. If the Euro takes a step with the others a lot of us are going to be cliff searching! What a mess - still need to wait for the shorter range models tomorrow though.
 
Broken024 said:
So Boone or Asheville?
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You’ll lose QPF towards Boone but they are more likely to stay all snow especially If this warm nose continues to strengthen. Mountains in a triangle between Asheville and Highlands have the most potential at this lead.
 
I haven’t had time to look past this weekend. Could one of you be a lamb?


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Snowflowxxl said:
We are at the point where we will need to start looking to see if the birds are feeding excessively as a sign for snow.
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Some people chuckle at this, but the birds IMBY have been devourIng seed the last couple of days. Their appetites have definitely increased.
 
wxdaniel said:
I haven’t had time to look past this weekend. Could one of you be a lamb?


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There is nothing beyond this weekend. The models couldn't even get this one right so they are certainly not even close with whatever comes next. I think for my sanity, It's best to only look out to 84 hours until we get to March.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's basically a fool's errand hoping a storm comes back from the west. Coming back from suppressed or OTS is almost always doable, but as I said from the get-go, without a strong, west-based -NAO to keep the 50/50 from scooting out, you need perfect timing.

This wave has gotten stronger and slowed down. With is no good NAO in place, the northern stream progresses and we're left with the upcoming debacle.

I still have difficulty believing that the low is going to track through Raleigh, but we're going to change to rain here almost certainly, the way it looks at this point, hopefully in time to avoid the major icing that areas to the west will see.

Unless the models are missing something really significant here, we know pretty much what we've got now.

One more thing, this is a good illustration into ensemble value. When you have one or two outlier runs of an operational, and the ensembles remain steadfast, you should give a nod to the ensembles. But when you see run after run of a certain trend, and the ensembles are slowly following, and other model trends are in the same direction, it is usually inaccurate to say "ignore the ops; let's go with the ensembles".

The ensembles provide a great deal of value, but we have to use them correctly and situationally. We can't use them for wishcasting or as evidence of what we hope will come true.

It has been clear since pretty much the beginning that the ensembles suites have been following the operational models. Givin the lack of a mechanism to hold the 50/50 in place, this was somewhat predictable. Trends across all guidance are just as, if not more, important to forecasting as the specific solutions themselves.

We will see some oscillations yet. But unless something big is being missed, we are starting to get a really good idea how this one will play out.
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When is your book signing tour?
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Lets face it. 99% of us prefer snow over sleet/freezing rain. Even if you get sleet/freezing rain, you'll still be mad you didn't get snow.
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I'm with you, but if snow isn't possible, than a sleet/freezing rain storm is pretty, so long as it's less than .25" of accumulation of ice. More than that and I want no part of it!
 
weatherfide said:
There is nothing beyond this weekend. The models couldn't even get this one right so they are certainly not even close with whatever comes next. I think for my sanity, It's best to only look out to 84 hours until we get to March.
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Can't really trust the models too much until you get within 3 days.
 
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