Yeah that ridge is getting really annoying. The SER is a direct result of that ridge. The NAO is doing all it can and keeping us from burning, but it can only do so much considering what it's up against. Average doesn't get us winter weather around here. Looks great from NYC north so I suppose we could luck out with CAD. But definitely not a real exciting look.It is absolutely not going to get very cold here as long as that big bright red anomaly to the NW is over the Aleutians or west of there.
We can have every numerical value of almost every index in our favor, but the shape and placement of the anomaly matters as much, if not more, than just the value.
There's a lot of excitement for a seasonable pattern. But I guess that's because we've moved away from a full on torch. Until we see the big block in the NW Pacific move, it's going to be mild with the occasional chilly rain for most.