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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

One thing I seem to be seeing is the loaded pattern change to cold continues to stay in the 340-384 hour range. We should all know how many times we’ve kicked the can chasing long term “loaded patterns”.

I hope like hell the models are right, but they have burned us for years. It’s hard to get excited when they can’t even get it right 72-84 hours out. I know I know, im being negative, but this is the thread for it.
 
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Parker said:
One thing I seem to be seeing is the loaded pattern change to cold continues to stay in the 340-384 hour range. We should all know how many times we’ve kicked the can chasing long term “loaded patterns”.

I hope like hell the models are right, but they have burned us for years. It’s hard to get excited when they can’t even get it right 72-84 hours out. I know know, im being negative.
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That’s winter in the SE brother. We kick that can with hope until March. I’m just glad we are seeing “ hope”.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Here's an animation of this same composite at -5 thru +20 lag. It's not perfect by any means, but I believe the overall idea here is correct. Lots of ups and downs the next couple weeks or so, a small warm-up at positive lag in response to the retrograding -EPO, but then the pattern turns very favorable for cold/snow about a week or two after that (which translates to early-mid January here).

View attachment 97869
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I have two final exams left, but Thursday afternoon I hope to finally take a deep dive into these composites!
 
Parker said:
One thing I seem to be seeing is the loaded pattern change to cold continues to stay in the 340-384 hour range. We should all know how many times we’ve kicked the can chasing long term “loaded patterns”.

I hope like hell the models are right, but they have burned us for years. It’s hard to get excited when they can’t even get it right 72-84 hours out. I know I know, im being negative, but this is the thread for it.
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In all fairness I can’t think of many people that said the pattern would change around Christmas. It was always they last couple days of the month into January
 
Ollie Williams said:
I have two final exams left, but Thursday afternoon I hope to finally take a deep dive into these composites!
Click to expand...

Good luck Ollie!

Awesome! I'm adding more to that xlsx sheet atm (ENSO via ENS ONI) that should allow you to do a quick, convenient analysis of how ENSO impacts the response of certain combinations of -EPO, -WPO, PNA, etc.
 
We are going to be in Cleveland Ohio from the 26th to the 29th, me being that far north and missing a good storm that close would just make me cry.?
 

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Mr. Golf said:
JB mentioned in a tweet earlier that similar to 13 14 could be on the way. I would go streaking in front of his house singing Feliz navidad if that came close to happening this winter??
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Well this gives new meaning to the weenie tag
 
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