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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

Let's go do this work thing and check in on 6 and 12 and gets some good trends back!
 
KyloG said:
I think GSO is sitting pretty. You guys will mix but it will be a huge winter storm.
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Yup, shiiii I’ll take any anything wintry atp mixed or not. thank god this is what we’re staring at for the next 2 weeks, there’s probably gonna be more that pops up, only problem is blocking so timing things will have to be better then normal 6263B249-66B8-4B02-8E1A-06DFDCD22B17.pngBA766613-EDBB-47DE-98FA-1C9623E645C6.pngB9534A97-1A28-42E4-9169-1EF20590687D.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I’d be upset if the pattern looked like crap after, but I would take a ice event heading into a great pattern
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Well this one had several ingredients to bring nice snowfall event for many. Now many outside of the 85 corridor are tracking an ice storm that probably turns into mostly rain.
 
KyloG said:
Well this one had several ingredients to bring nice snowfall event for many. Now many outside of the 85 corridor are tracking an ice storm that probably turns into mostly rain.
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Lack of -NAO to Keep the 50/50 in place and likely we were gonna to see amplification trends, it was kind of bound to trend NW. man that’s why I loved that Ukie run from a few nights ago, I wish we was getting that look right now, maybe some miracle can happen and that low near California tries to mess with our piece of energy again
 
KyloG said:
Well this one had several ingredients to bring nice snowfall event for many. Now many outside of the 85 corridor are tracking an ice storm that probably turns into mostly rain.
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Yeah, very rarely do we get systems with temperatures as cold as this one (at least initially). Every flake would accumulate. Now, half of the GEFS members turns my backyard to rain because of that low track. What track do you think will be the final outcome?
 
packfan98 said:
Yeah, very rarely do we get systems with temperatures as cold as this one (at least initially). Every flake would accumulate. Now, half of the GEFS members turns my backyard to rain because of that low track. What track do you think will be the final outcome?
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I like something in between the the GFS and euro for now, maybe more to the GFS
 
packfan98 said:
Yeah, very rarely do we get systems with temperatures as cold as this one (at least initially). Every flake would accumulate. Now, half of the GEFS members turns my backyard to rain because of that low track. What track do you think will be the final outcome?
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The Euro/EPS is what I think happens.
 
It’s stunning that 24 hours after that high pressure is completely gone. You stick it east of us it strengthens and moves west.

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For anyone questioning my pessimism at times this is why. Any sense of happiness from winter weather has been killed a long time ago. I’m not writing off this storm for me or others, but it’s certainly trended away from being a historic snowstorm. How in the fu*# did we manage to screw it up this badly? Literally we were working with some of the coldest temps we’ve seen in some time.
 
Cadi40 said:
For anyone questioning my pessimism at times this is why. Any sense of happiness from winter weather has been killed a long time ago. I’m not writing off this storm for me or others, but it’s certainly trended away from being a historic snowstorm. How in the fu*# did we manage to screw it up this badly? Literally we were working with some of the coldest temps we’ve seen in some time.
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It’s climo bro
 
I dont know where people get all this optimism from with this one. We have lost the whole look everyone was excited about. You know there will be that one decent run that will suck people in even further too. Can't post this is the main thread though all OPs are wrong apparently.
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Yup, shiiii I’ll take any anything wintry atp mixed or not. thank god this is what we’re staring at for the next 2 weeks, there’s probably gonna be more that pops up, only problem is blocking so timing things will have to be better then normal View attachment 104306View attachment 104307View attachment 104308
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We're going to need a block like you said, or a pure STJ southern slider to keep it south of us in that pattern I think. Can't trust a 50/50 low anymore by itself.

For this storm, I have no expectations anymore. Models have been so bad leading up to this, I wouldn't be surprised if it straight up becomes an app runner and we all rain.
 
SnowNiner said:
We're going to need a block like you said, or a pure STJ southern slider to keep it south of us in that pattern I think. Can't trust a 50/50 low anymore by itself.

For this storm, I have no expectations anymore. Models have been so bad leading up to this, I wouldn't be surprised if it straight up becomes an app runner and we all rain.
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We’re not escaping a ice storm man, those sfc temps are cold
 
SD said:
Rule #2 don't cheer on amplification outside of the 24-36 hour window. It's coming in most instances
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I said that the other day too...there's a reason we haven't seen an 8"+ event in 20 years. We need weak strung out messes that give us .3" of precip so we can get 2-3" of snow. That's our cap...anything over that these systems just jump NW.
 
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