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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

Waiting on the 0z GEFS and then I may work on an updated prediction map with some adjustments to the prediction. On tonight's 0z GFS run, it starts out okay between hrs. 156 - 168, but after that features become disorganized.
 
StormWatch said:
Waiting on the 0z GEFS and then I may work on an updated prediction map with some adjustments to the prediction. On tonight's 0z GFS run, it starts out okay between hrs. 156 - 168, but after that features become disorganized.
Click to expand...
Where’s the first prediction?
 
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0z Euro and some thoughts

The new data does indeed indicate the low kicking out from Texas and tracking along the Gulf coast with a 1035mb high northeast of the low. The high could be stronger (sub 1040mb or even a low 1040mb) it's too early to know the strength of the high but nevertheless, CAD would be introduced. Of course, the Euro has a warmer bias, however at this stage, excact temperature profiles are unknown. Currently, just looking for further verification/confirmation of an actual low developing and keeping a watch on upper air flow patterns.

As I mentioned in my preliminary prediction, scenario 2 is what I'm going with and that does seem to be the case at this time. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar solution as to what the 18z GFS indicated from yesterday because with the arctic high pressure building northeast of the low and another arctic high coming down on the back side of the low (likely) It's certainly possible the potential winter storm can produce ice, ZR/IP prior of the eastern ridge dissipating, transitioning to all snow as the warmer levels erode at the same time the ridge dissipates and as the deeper air mass comes into place on the back side of low. Lots of players will be at play with this particular setup.
5a5501971503a4fb25e31b66fe9346fc.jpg
 
Okay, so this is the (soon to be, possibly) winter storm that I'm predicting, the GFS has been hinting at it at H5, but it's finally materializing at the surface. This is beginning of a trend, I expect this storm system to trend south and east over time. Winter storm prediction is still a go!
23ab0c4b087257495e4798f79496f985.gif
 
StormWatch said:
Okay, so this is the (soon to be, possibly) winter storm that I'm predicting, the GFS has been hinting at it at H5, but it's finally materializing at the surface. This is beginning of a trend, I expect this storm system to trend south and east over time. Winter storm prediction is still a go!
23ab0c4b087257495e4798f79496f985.gif
Click to expand...
Great storm... for Iowa.
 
StormWatch said:
Okay, so this is the (soon to be, possibly) winter storm that I'm predicting, the GFS has been hinting at it at H5, but it's finally materializing at the surface. This is beginning of a trend, I expect this storm system to trend south and east over time. Winter storm prediction is still a go!
23ab0c4b087257495e4798f79496f985.gif
Click to expand...

It’ll have to get way south. Still would be cool if it did.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
StormWatch said:
Okay, so this is the (soon to be, possibly) winter storm that I'm predicting, the GFS has been hinting at it at H5, but it's finally materializing at the surface. This is beginning of a trend, I expect this storm system to trend south and east over time. Winter storm prediction is still a go!
23ab0c4b087257495e4798f79496f985.gif
Click to expand...

Weenie
 
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