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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

Well, going to sit back and wait. It's way out to the 20th before we really get to a really good pattern IMO, then at the end of the GEFS the Aleutian low seems to fade away and the pacific jet looks to start retracting (6Z GEFS). I'm really not confident in a multi-week great pattern, but we'll see. Patience I guess.
 
I love how we pick and choose models to show what we need! Same nutjobs in here wishcasting warmth! ?
 
SnowNiner said:
Well, going to sit back and wait. It's way out to the 20th before we really get to a really good pattern IMO, then at the end of the GEFS the Aleutian low seems to fade away and the pacific jet looks to start retracting (6Z GEFS). I'm really not confident in a multi-week great pattern, but we'll see. Patience I guess.
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I agree. I don’t see much greatness in this pattern other than some short lived cold shots and marginal events


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Stephenb888 said:
It’s only being slept on by those of us that aren’t in a good position. I would never count North Carolina out of anything.
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The overall look at H5 has been trending favorable for everyone on ensembles, especially the EPS, I’m not excited by it but I’m not mad at it either, it’s just a wait and see game
 
Loganelliott99 said:
I agree. I don’t see much greatness in this pattern other than some short lived cold shots and marginal events


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Well, I think the really good +PNA/-EPO split flow sets up eventually in some shape or form. Admittedly that could fall apart too being 10 days out, but I think it shows up based on the jet being in the right spot and the Aleutian low consistently modeled.

How long it lasts however I don't feel good about. I want Seattle in December dang it and the trough just spinning over the east for a few weeks. But looking at the end of the ensembles just a few days after the good pattern sets in, I just feel the Aleutian ridge and SE ridge warming up in the bull pen. ? :confused:
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The overall look at H5 has been trending favorable for everyone on ensembles, especially the EPS, I’m not excited by it but I’m not mad at it either, it’s just a wait and see game
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If this storm does move nw do you think the upstate has a chance at seeing winter wx or is this just a eastern nc eastern sc threat only
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The overall look at H5 has been trending favorable for everyone on ensembles, especially the EPS, I’m not excited by it but I’m not mad at it either, it’s just a wait and see game
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I mean realistically the models wont nail down the S/W and stream interaction's with any kind of real accuracy until we are inside 7 days anyways, so fretting over individual "storms" in this range is a waste of time.....overall this pattern is the kind that produces snows in the SE, someone is gonna score big I think.....
 
Downeastnc said:
I mean realistically the models wont nail down the S/W and stream interaction's with any kind of real accuracy until we are inside 7 days anyways, so fretting over individual "storms" in this range is a waste of time.....overall this pattern is the kind that produces snows in the SE, someone is gonna score big I think.....
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This pattern has mountains/ and northeast wrote all over it. I have a feeling the southeast will do about the same we did last year.
 
Downeastnc said:
I mean realistically the models wont nail down the S/W and stream interaction's with any kind of real accuracy until we are inside 7 days anyways, so fretting over individual "storms" in this range is a waste of time.....overall this pattern is the kind that produces snows in the SE, someone is gonna score big I think.....
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Yes sir. I don't get the hand wringing over not seeing a massive snowstorm at 240 hours.
 
Stephenb888 said:
This pattern has mountains/ and northeast wrote all over it. I have a feeling the southeast will do about the same we did last year.
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What makes you think this pattern doesn't favor the upstate? This is a good pattern for upstate.

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Give me a winter storm that pops up on the models 3 - 4 days out over a day 10 winter storm any day. Let's be realistic here. What are the chances of scoring a day 10 winter storm? Just give me a good pattern to score and we'll see what happens.
 
mrdaddyman said:
Give me a winter storm that pops up on the models 3 - 4 days out over a day 10 winter storm any day. Let's be realistic here. What are the chances of scoring a day 10 winter storm?
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Weenies : models are unreliable after day 10

Also weenies : GOD DANG IT WHY IS THERE NO SNOWSTORM IN THE 240 hour range
 
mrdaddyman said:
Give me a winter storm that pops up on the models 3 - 4 days out over a day 10 winter storm any day. Let's think about it. What are the chances of scoring a day 10 winter storm?
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And I think by the end of this week you will see that on models. I feel same way who cares what a model shows 10 days out. Give me one with 84hrs and then we can talk

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