Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

[Myfrotho704_]

Talkin bout source regions in October lol

Lol what’s the problem ? Many areas in the high latitudes start averaging snow around this time, in Canada, Alaska, towards a the Arctic circle, especially in October, talking about source regions in October is not bad, of course the pattern can change, but id much rather see blues up there and a nice buildup of snowpack so there could already be a freezer forming above us, last year just proves how warmer source regions screwed us

 

[jackendrickwx]

Lol what’s the problem ? Many areas in the high latitudes start averaging snow around this time, in Canada, Alaska, towards a the Arctic circle, especially in October, talking about source regions in October is not bad, of course the pattern can change, but id much rather see blues up there so there could already be a freezer forming above us

I just don’t feel like it’s a deal breaker this early on.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I just don’t feel like it’s a deal breaker this early on.

I’m definitely not saying that it’s a main deciding factor but it would just be nice if we could have Canada below average and in a deep freezer, especially since La nina winters typically are better for us earlier in the winter (dec-jan vs later)

 

[SD]

I just don’t feel like it’s a deal breaker this early on.

Yeah I'd love to be laying down feet on feet of snow cover but it's still relatively early and any gains in Sept-Oct can be erased by a bad nov/Dec. Gfs puts down a good amount of snow in AK and NW Canada anyway

 

[jackendrickwx]

I’m definitely not saying that it’s a main deciding factor but it would just be nice if we could have Canada below average and in a deep freezer, especially since La nina winters typically are better for us earlier in the winter (dec-jan vs later)

I agree with that sentiment, but I’m not worried yet

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah I'd love to be laying down feet on feet of snow cover but it's still relatively early and any gains in Sept-Oct can be erased by a bad nov/Dec. Gfs puts down a good amount of snow in AK and NW Canada anywayView attachment 91269

I’d love a November where SE Canada gets a sh*t ton of snow

 

[LickWx]

I’d love a November where SE Canada gets a sh*t ton of snow

I’d love a November where no where gets any snow and there is no sea ice . A November where there is not 1 cloudy day ! Just sun.

 

[SD]

I’d love a November where SE Canada gets a sh*t ton of snow

Yep. We have once again forced the pv on to the other side

If there is ever a year for Cohens methodology of big October snow in Siberia=cold for the US to work it might be this one

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yep. We have once again forced the pv on to the other sideView attachment 91270

If there is ever a year for Cohens methodology of big October snow in Siberia=cold for the US to work it might be this one

Very similar pattern to what disrupted the SPV last fall/winter

 

[SD]

Very similar pattern to what disrupted the SPV last fall/winter

Might be part of the early SSW/weak spv on the euro/UK seasonal

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Might be part of the early SSW/weak spv on the euro/UK seasonal

You can already see the effect of that Bering sea vortex/ridging towards the Arctic circle doing some damage to the SPV just as it’s getting going, note the 10mb anticyclone on top of AK already getting going

 

[SD]

You can already see the effect of that Bering sea vortex/ridging towards the Arctic circle doing some damage to the SPV just as it’s getting going, note the 10mb anticyclone on top of AK already getting going View attachment 91272View attachment 91273View attachment 91274

That's awesome.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Danville Virginia to Asheboro NC zoo area may have a tornado today but no further west than person county NC imo cause then it turns into a line with damaging wind threat only. Edit (it’s not often we have a line from TN come in after heating of the day and pockets of sun like it’s about to do)

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That's awesome.

Very much so, really like the signal of it being earlier this year would be nice to get the cold air dump from the response in late December/January vs feb when naturally the SE ridge appears during a La Niña

 

[SD]

Very much so, really like the signal of it being earlier this year would be nice to get the cold air dump from the response in late December/January vs feb when naturally the SE ridge appears during a La Niña

Yeah no kidding it would be a nice change. Looking at some of the SST analog years we really jump into winter in many of those quickly mid to late November

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah no kidding it would be a nice change. Looking at some of the SST analog years we really jump into winter in many of those quickly mid to late November

Yep, let’s drop some 1040s in the US early this time

 

[SD]

Yep, let’s drop some 1040s in the US early this time ❄

If someone said we were looking at a snow threat before Christmas I honestly wouldn't be shocked

 

[LickWx]

Too early to look at how the source regions which cool off now are doing but never too early to speculate about snow before Christmas ! Man the winter itch is strong this year .

 

[SD]

Too early to look at how the source regions which cool off now are doing but never too early to speculate about snow before Christmas ! Man the winter itch is strong this year .

Can you find anything related to a warm October in Canada and the resulting US winter? I'd love to see it. The SST analogs that fro posted were some years that had a snow event for us before Christmas so there's a little more merit to the post. It's not just source region warm in late sept/early October winter cancel

 

[LickWx]

Can you find anything related to warm October in Canada and the resulting US winter? I'd love to see it

Tbh my post in the main thread was making fun of fro … not necessarily ascribing to the theory as much as I’m making fun of both sides here speculating so far ahead in time . Weenie life! Make that a bumper sticker and sell it Shane!